-Luke B., June 23, 2015
One of the most significant differences that I noticed
when shifting from my redraft leagues to dynasty leagues was that players are
valued differently. This may come across as a simplistic, almost obvious,
aspect to a savvier player or seasoned veteran in the realm of dynasty leagues
however, to those that are truly new to dynasty leagues can be caught off
guard. Imagine expecting to see the redraft “darling”, LeVeon Bell, go from first
overall to anywhere from fourth overall to tenth overall in a dynasty league
startup draft, buried behind a run of young wide receivers.
This is what happens. In redraft leagues, each year the
draft starts off with a run of capable running backs. Players like the
aforementioned Bell, along with Eddie Lacy, LeSean McCoy and others, seem to
come off of the board almost immediately. My top 10 redraft rankings go like
this:
1.
LeVeon Bell
2.
Eddie Lacy
3.
Jamaal Charles
4.
Marshawn Lynch
5.
Rob Gronkowski
6.
Adrian Peterson
7.
Antonio Brown
8.
Matt Forte
9.
Dez Bryant
10. Arian
Foster
Surprised to see so many non-running backs? I know I was.
But that is also a sign of the times in the NFL. It also speaks to one of the
main reasons running backs rule the top of redraft leagues, positional
scarcity.
Now, let’s
take a look my own top 10 startup draft rankings for dynasty. Then we can
compare and contrast the broad strokes of our lists:
1.
Odell Beckham Jr.
2.
Julio Jones
3.
Dez Bryant
4.
Antonio Brown
5.
Rob Gronkowski
6.
LeVeon Bell
7.
AJ Green
8.
Mike Evans
9.
Eddie Lacy
10. Demaryius
Thomas
Based on this list, it is obvious to see that young
wideouts rule the dynasty landscape in the first round of a startup draft.
Players like Odell Beckham Jr, Julio Jones and AJ Green did not even appear on
the redraft league list, yet they are fixated in the early to middle of the
dynasty league list.
So what are these results a product of?
Positional
Scarcity:
As I mentioned earlier, in redraft leagues the first
aspect is positional scarcity. In 2014, there were 42 wide receivers that
scored at least 100 points throughout the season. That goes over 50 if you
include a point per reception (PPR). In that same time frame on 30 RB were able
to do this, with only six scoring over 200 points; 10 if you include PPR,
compared to 25 wide receivers in the same scoring settings. So in redraft
leagues, it is important to get players at positions of scarcity that can score
big numbers.
Positional Risks:
Another aspect that seems to vary between positions is
risk. Part of the reason that dynasty leagues see such a swell of young wide
receivers at the top of their rankings is because they’re at less risk for
injury when compared to a running back (who deals with severe contact on every
play in which they are involved. Tight ends also have a higher risk of injury
as they often also make blocks and have to make highly contested catches in the
middle of the field. A true number one wide receiver is faced with a lot of
running and a plethora of contested catches themselves, however
Age:
The other aspect that can be more overlooked in redraft
leagues is age. If you look at my top 12 list for redraft leagues, there are a
total of seven running backs. Out of those seven, there are only two under the
age of 28 (Bell is 23 and Lacy is 24). Age is not a huge factor, because taking
an older player at a high draft pick does not carry compiled risk from season
to season, like in dynasty leagues. Adrian Peterson is 30 and has been out of
football for almost a year, yet he still ranks in the first round because of
his past successes.
However, if you were to move from redraft league rankings
to dynasty league rankings, Adrian Peterson is my 20th best running back (60th
overall). This is because dynasty approach carries a different mindset that
makes aspects like age, positional risk, short term talent and opportunity and
long term value and opportunity important aspects when drafting.
Opportunity and
Talent:
I combine these last two together (at a basic level of
understanding fantasy as a whole) because I feel that every player needs to
have both talent and opportunity to merit a starting spot in my lineups. For
example, my number one player in dynasty leagues is Odell Beckham Jr (OBJ). He
is a 22 years old, starting wide receiver that has above average talent and no
competition to steal targets away from him. His quarterback, Eli Manning, is
not the most consistent from year to year, but OBJ makes him better. It’s a
balance of these qualities that fill the top of my dynasty and redraft leagues.
If you step back and look at a wide receiver that is not
in the top two rounds, there is a stark contrast. Look at my 33rd
overall player, Kelvin Benjamin. Comparatively, Benjamin and OBJ are both
starters for their team and are both going into their second season. But that
is where the similarities end. Benjamin is not an efficient WR and has a
quarterback in Newton that is not accurate. Couple this with the fact that
Benjamin’s scoring
last year came from there being a lack of options in Carolina, and you can see
that his production can only go down in year two with Devin Funchess being the
newest skilled player on the team. In fact, some are lauding Funchess to be a
better, more athletic version of Benjamin. So Benjamin may become the de facto number
two by years end. But this why Benjamin is a third rounder and OBJ is
potentially the first overall.
What do you take away from this? Just as it is important
to understand the scoring of a new league that you are joining, it is also
important to understand the broad strokes of your format. Each format will
alter your ultimate approach to your team and will hopefully give you an early
edge to other owners that simply show up on draft day and put check marks next
to a rankings list. Personally, I cannot promise that you or I will win every
season, but I can promise that at least I will be the most informed owner in
any league that I am a part of; and knowledge is the most important tool you
can possess in fantasy football.
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