Week 3 Waiver Picking

You have no idea whether your team is good or not.

I'm serious. It's Week 3, we've had only two games, and you've proven nothing. You're either 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2... and that is all the possibilities. You could have a team that includes Peyton Manning, Eddie Lacy, Jeremy Hill, and Dez Bryant, and still be in dead last. That's a good team. Don't second-guess yourself. This is just an insane start to the fantasy season.

You've got to have a short memory in fantasy football. One week, a player could blow up - then go AWOL for the rest of the season (lookin' at you, Cordarrelle Patterson. Effin' tease.) On the other hand, that player could be showing that they're going to emerge into something great and useful (lookin' at you, Martavis Bryant. Lay off the hash and come back to play). Here at TOFFG, we hope to help you sort through the Fool's Gold (Patterson) and seize the Real Deal (Bryant).

So, without further ado, let's get to it.

Travis Benjamin – Real Deal

I’m convinced Johnny Manziel only throws to this guy because his last name is “Benjamin” and Johnny’s promised not to throw up the “cash” sign anymore. (I’ll let that joke sink in… 3…2…1… there you go.) But seriously, Johnny Football’s idea of a ‘check-down’ appears to be heaving it up to Benjamin and letting Benjamin chase it down like a golden retriever. It’s working, and Johnny has the job for now… so while that’s the case roll with Benjamin.

Also, Johnny’s throwin’ Benjamins. That’s the joke y’all. Cash.

Dexter McCluster – Fool's Gold

Last week, Bishop Sankey led the Titans in rushing. I hope you sold him then. This week, McCluster led the Titans in rushing. If you are able to sell McCluster… why the heck did you have lackluster-McCluster on your team in the first place?! Shame on you.

Michael Crabtree – Real Deal

There’s the athleticism we’ve coveted in Crabtree for years. He posted a 9/111/1Td stat line on 16 targets. While Car probably won’t get the opportunity to target Crabtree that much going forward, Crabtree and Cooper opened up the field against a good Raven’s defense that held the Broncos in check Week 1. Crabtree will be good for high WR3/FLEX consideration going forward.

Eric Ebron – Fool's Gold

5/43/1td, operating as a safety blanket for the sore arm of Matthew Stafford. He’s a boom/bust player, and is behind Megatron, Golden Tate, and potentially Abdullah for targets. He’s an unreliable desperation FLEX in deeper leagues, at best. Stop trying to make Ebron happen. It’s not going to happen (yet).

Colin Kaepernick - Fool's Gold

What we learned this week: When the 49ers are way down and have no hope of winning, Kaep will have inflated stats. He was 33 of 46 on pass attempts for 335 yards and tossed two TDs. He also ran nine times for 51 yards (but no bicep kisses). Unfortunately, almost all of this came in garbage time. He’s a desperation play in bye weeks, or a “what the heck” play in 2QB leagues.

Larry Fitzgerald - Real Deal

Larry Fitzgerald, as we knew him before 2010, showed up on Sunday. He gave the Bears secondary “Fitz” (get it? So punny) by putting up a 8/112/3td stat line. He’s on pace for 112 receptions and 1,592 yards (and 24 touchdowns, but that’s ludicrous). While he won’t be facing the Bears secondary every week, he and John Brown complement each other very well and we can expect a floor of high WR2 every week for each. Larry will have a blaze of glory this year before his career goes softly into that good night.

Week 3 Rankings

Weekly Rankings, compiled by Luke B. (@darcdawg) are live! You can access them by clicking here or by using the navigation menu above!

TOFFG Interviews.... Jerry Jones!

This week, TOFFG was fortunate enough to score an interview with Jerry Jones, owner of the Dallas Cowboys, aka “America’s Team.” 

Ok, so we weren’t able to actually get the interview. But if we had, this is how it would have gone. Enjoy.

-Noah D. 

TOFFG: “Hello, Mr. Jones. Thank you for taking time out of your busy schedule to speak with us.”

Jerry Jones: “Well, when my secretary showed me your interview with Bill Belichick from last year, I almost had to. The Patriots may be the current Super Bowl champions, but the Cowboys are America’s team. I’m not doing this interview for you, I’m doing it for America.”

TOFFG: “Mr. Jones, let's cut to the chase. Your star wide receiver is out for most of the season. Your star quarterback is out for most of the season. Your running back situation is a mess. What can Cowboys fans really hang their hats on?"

JJ: "We got Dan Bailey baby. Have you ever seen 75 yard field goals? Because you're about to. Everything's big in Texas, including that guy's leg. Yeeeeehaw!"

TOFFG: “Mr. Jones, can Brandon Weeden step up and take control of this team?”

JJ: "No. Brandon Weeden sucks. The f***in’ Browns cut Brandon Weeden.

TOFFG: "Well, Mr. Jones - what are you going to do then?"

JJ: "Oh, we're trading for RG3. Kid's got a big arm, and our offensive line can actually protect him. Besides, can you imagine the look on every last Redskin fan’s face when I have their ‘franchise savior’ demolish them? That Gruden guy is such an ass, he’s really got it comin’.”

TOFFG: “That’s frightening, Mr. Jones. But on the same topic… Texas Governor Greg Abbott expressed on Twitter that he would like Dallas to sign Tim Tebow. What are your thoughts?"

JJ: "That would be a media circus. Imagine, Tebow coming in to start for the Dallas Cowboys after being cut by NFC East rival Philadelphia Eagles, after a game where those same Eagles broke Romo's collarbone? Absolute insanity. Abbott's got a pair of big ones for suggesting that."

TOFFG: "But Mr. Jones, what do you think of the idea?"

JJ: "Oh it's a great idea. I'll bring in RG3 and sign Tebow for wildcat plays. Excuse me, I have to go make some phone calls."

Building A DFS Roster (Plus sample rosters for Week 2)

By Luke B.

In this article I am going to take a look at my favorite lineups going into week 2. The first one will be my favorite cash game lineup, followed by my favorite tourney lineup, and finally a list of other players I like based on their value. Let me know what you guys think in the comment section below. ***All players and their costs are based on Draft Kings***

In cash games (example: 50/50’s), your goal is to reach a 3:1 ratio for points to cost. (3 points for every $1000 spent) so you are looking for players with a high floor as opposed to high risk/reward players. With that in mind, this is my cash lineup:

Cash Game Lineup for Week 2

Pos	Player	Cost of Player	Points Needed to Offset Cost (x3)
QB	Matt Ryan	$7,400	22.20 points
RB	Carlos Hyde	$5,100	15.30 points
RB	Mark Ingram	$5,900	17.70 points
WR	Julio Jones	$8,900	26.70 points
WR	John Brown	$5,100	15.30 points
WR	Kendall Wright	$5,000	15.00 points
TE	Michael Bennett	$4,500	13.50 points
FL	Greg Olsen	$4,900	14.70 points
DF	Baltimore Ravens	$2,900	8.70 points
TOT	9 Players	$49,700	149.10 points

1.     As one of my favorite stacks of the week, I expect Matt Ryan and Julio Jones to do well against a NYG team that ranked 30th in pass defense last week.

2.    My running back options are both playing against medium rush defenses and play for teams that should utilize their pass catching running backs for a large percentage of the total offense.

3.    My wide receivers include John Brown and Kendall Wright. They are both great values in a PPR format and both have a good chance of scoring a TD.

4.    I have two TE’s in this lineup because I expect high floors out of both based on their matchups. I could have gone with either Moncrief or Davante Adams but like my chances with the better.

5.    Finally, on defense I went with Baltimore. I feel that the Oakland Raiders will have a hard time offensively against the Ravens this week.

Now, here is my tourney lineup in which the goal is to go with players that have a high boom/bust possibility in the hopes of scoring roughly a 1:5 ratio between cost and points (5 points for every $1000 spent). With that in mind, here is my tournament lineup:

Tournament Lineup for Week 2

Pos	Player	Cost of Player	Post Needed to Offset Cost (x5)
QB	Sam Bradford	$6,900	34.50 points
RB	Ameer Abdullah	$4,500	22.50 points
RB	Jeremy Hill	$7,400	29.50 points
WR	Jordan Matthews	$7,100	35.50 points
WR	Donte Moncrief	$4,600	23.00 points
WR	Kendall Wright	$5,000	25.00 points
TE	Austin Sefarian-Jenkins	$4,100	20.50 points
FL	DeAndre Hopkins	$7,400	37.50 points
DF	Baltimore Ravens	$2,900	14.50 points
TOT	9 Players	$49,900	242.50 points

1.    I went with another stack in this one. My hope is that a lot of people are off of Bradford as an option after his less than spectacular week 1. I am also hoping that the Bradford/Matthews connection will continue into this weekend as it seemed Bradford only had eyes for Matthews for most of the game.

2.    As for the running backs, I went with one higher cost player in Hill that I expect to have a high floor on the week with a decent chance for more. I also then went with a high boom/bust player at a value with Ameer Abdullah. After last week, his x5 total is only 22.50 points and he could cover that against MIN.

3.    With the wide receivers, I went with Matthews due to the high upside with Bradford. I also went with the high cost of Hopkins after learning that Mallett will be getting the start and expect him to do well against CAR’s secondary. Finally, I went with two value plays with upside. I first took Kendall Wright, in the hopes that he can have a good PPR game against CLE. Then I took Moncrief at $4,600, hoping that his week 1 numbers remain at least on par with this week.

4.    At TE, I went with Austin Sefarian-Jenkins as he was $3,100 dollars cheaper than Gronkowski, (at $4,100) and is going up against a New Orleans defense that allowed ARi’s TE Darren Fells to get 82 yards and a touch down on just four targets. This could turn out to be even better if Evans does not play.

5.    Finally, at Defense, I went with Baltimore as I expect them to do well shutting down the OAK offense.

Finally, here is a list of a few value plays I like when you looking for deals to fill in the gaps on your lineups:

Pos	Player	Cost of Player
QB	Carson Palmer vs 26th ranked CHI (Cash)	$6,700
QB	Jameis Winston vs 32nd ranked NO  (GPP)	$5,600
RB	Carlos Hyde vs 14th ranked PIT (Cash)	$5,100
RB	T.J. Yeldon vs 17th ranked MIA  (GPP)	$4,800
RB	Tevin Coleman vs 25th ranked NYG (Cash)	$4,500
WR	Kendall Wright vs 25th ranked CLE (Both)	$5,000
WR	John Brown vs 13th ranked CHI (Cash)	$5,100
WR	Pierre Garcon vs 26th ranked WASH (GPP)	$5,000
WR	Terrance Williams vs 30th ranked PHI (GPP)	$4,200
TE	Greg Olsen vs 29th ranked HOU (Both)	$4,900
TE	Jordan Reed vs 23rd ranked STL (GPP)	$3,700
DF	Baltimore Ravens vs 20th ranked OAK (Both)	$2,900
DF	San Fran 49ers vs 12th ranked PIT (GPP)	$2,700

Luke's FLEXology Report, Week 2

TOFFG Writer (and Mad Scientist) Luke B. shares his outlook on who you should start in your FLEX this week!

Running Back

Start: Bishop Sankey TEN (RB29 for week 2):

In week one Bishop Sankey went 74 yards on 12 attempts and a score for a 6 yard average. Terrance West, who was recently added to the Tennessee roster via a trade, was given one more rush than Sankey (13) during garbage time at the end of the game but he only yielded 41 rushing yards for just over a 3 yard average. Sankey now faces the 24th ranked rushing defense that allowed Chris Ivory to gain 91 yards on 20 attempts and score 2 touchdowns. I like Sankey to see RB2 numbers in this one.

Avoid: DeAngelo Williams PIT (RB22 for week 2):

In week one, DeAngelo Williams went 127 yards on 21 carries for a 6 yard average and was the only true rushing threat that Pittsburgh had against New England. This is the last week for Williams owners to utilize his RB1-RB2 potential before LeVeon Bell comes back next week. So one might think that this would be a good time to flex in that late round option that was a low end RB1 in week one, right? Well, in week 2 Pittsburgh goes up against an empowered San Francisco team that ranks 6th overall. I look for Willaims to miss out of even RB2 numbers as the passing game will have to step up this week to score against a surprisingly stingy defense and an equally surprising strong rushing offense.

Wide Receiver

Start: Sammie Watkins BUF (WR27 for week 2):

So last week Sammie had a horrible outing in Buffalo’s win against Indianapolis. He was targeted 3 times and did not catch a single ball. Instead, it was Percy Harvin that showed up (which was called by my TOFFG colleague, Noah last week). Percy caught all 5 of his targets for 79 yards and the lone receiving touchdown. So how does Sammie fit into a good flex play after posting a goose egg the week before and with going against New England? First, is that Sammie was part of the game plan in week 1; it was Tyrod under throwing Sammie that led to his 0 catch line and one of those targets would have gone for over 50 yards and a touchdown. Second, is the overall volatility that is the Buffalo offense with a quarterback like Tyrod under center; given time Sammie’s talent will make him rise to the top. Finally, The New England defense ranked 25th last week in part by allowing 4 receiving options to get at least 50 yards in the air. I expect Sammie to bounce back as a low end WR2 as the defense should allow for ample opportunity.

Avoid: James Jones GB (WR20 for week 2):

In week one, James Jones went 51 yards catching all 4 of his targets for 2 touchdowns, making Davante Adams owners curse at the fantasy gods for allowing the New York Giants to release Jones in the pre season. Jones also looks to be in a good spot, facing the 26th ranked passing defense in Seattle; however, there are a couple of aspects that make me take pause on expecting Jones to be a WR2. First, the target distribution was only 4 targets for Jones verses 8 for Adams and 5 for Cobb. If this holds up, Adams and Cobb should both get more targets and Jones should see most of his targets in the red zone. Finally, although Seattle lost a heartbreaker to St. Louis, Seattle did not allow a red zone passing TD in that loss, which is where Jones scored both of his TD’s. I do not see Jones being a WR2 this week as I expect any red zone passes to go over the middle, into the soft spot of Seattle’s secondary, which would more than likely make Cobb the target.

Tight End

Start: Dwayne Allen IND (TE13 for week 2)

In week one, Dwayne Allen went only 17 yards on 3 receptions, scoring once against a stingy Buffalo defense. Now Indianapolis faces the New York Jets, which are currently 5th overall in team defense after beating Cleveland last week. That being said, here are a few thoughts as to why Allen should do better: First, Allen was targeted 6 times and Fleener was only targeted once. Second, Allen saw 68% of the snaps (52 plays) to Fleener’s 48% (37 plays). So it is apparent that Allen will have more opportunities through out the game. Finally, the Jets defense allowed for a lot of short to intermediate passes to be converted by Johnny Manziel, which shows that while New York is strong on the defensive line and in the secondary, Allen is in prime position to be targeted often; if Hilton does not play, Luck may need to lean on Allen so I expect him to easily be a mid to low end starting TE play this week.

Avoid: Jordan Cameron MIA (TE9 for week 2):

In week one, Cameron had 73 yards on 4 receptions and was the second most targeted player next to Jarvis Landry. It would seem that Miami Quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, is learning to lean on his new tight end. However, I am avoiding Cameron this week based on the matchup against Jacksonville. In week one, the Jaguars were able to hold a much better tight end option in Greg Olsen to just 1 catch for 11 yards on 3 targets. I cannot see how Cameron will do much better as his decent receiving numbers were against the Washington Redskins. I expect Miami to utilize Lamar Miller more to establish the pace of the game and then see Landry Richard Matthews to see most of the targets. Cameron will get his, but not enough to get starting tight end points.

Week 2 Rankings

Weekly rankings, compiled by Luke B. (@darcdawg) are up now! You can view them by clicking here or by using the menu above!

Week 1 Approaches! (Start/Avoid)

Hello everyone, and welcome back to fantasy football.

It's been a while - Luke was off being a dad, while Noah was taking the bar. Needless to say, football is back tonight, and that is beautiful. Your teams are all drafted, and it's time to set your lineups for the weekend. After a long hiatus, we here at TOFFG are here to help, with our weekly Start/Avoid column.

It's fairly self-explanatory, but here's how it works: Each week, Luke and I will each select two players to start and two players to avoid. We'll throw in two sentences why. Our goal here is not to dictate your lineups - if we tell you to Avoid Russell Wilson and he's your only QB, then you don't have much choice. However, we do want to temper your expectations and highlight places where we are concerned (or excited!) about potential production for the week.

Without further ado, here is Week 1 Start/Avoid!

Start:

1.  Ryan Tannehill: Labeled the 11th QB in week one, Tannehill is playing against the 24th ranked passing defense last year. Between Landry, Stills, Parker and Jennings, there are plenty or targets to give Washington fits. -Luke

2. Isaiah Crowell: The third best offensive line is about to go up against the fifth best defensive line in East Rutherford this weekend. With Terrance West being traded to Tennessee and Duke Johnson just getting back on the field from a concussion, Isaiah Crowell should be used to set the tone on offense for Cleveland. -Luke

3. Percy Harvin: Rex Ryan will want to give Tyrod Taylor a safety valve - and that will give Percy Harvin FLEX value this week. I see Harvin lining up for easy screens, in the backfield next to Shady to open running lanes, and occasionally catching a deep ball from Tyrod's cannon. -Noah

4. Jarvis Landry: Ryan Tannehill is going to light up the Redskins. Jarvis Landry will help him do it. - Noah

Avoid:

1. Emmanuel Sanders: Ranked 10th in PPR, Sanders is playing against the 32nd best team against the WR. So it looks like a no-brainer. Unfortunately, this is a new Broncos team and Sanders has said he expects less targets. So I expect to see Sanders to actually end his day at about WR 18-20 as Demaryius gets his targets and CJ Anderson is used to control the game. -Luke

2. Travis Kelce: As the third overall ranked TE for this week, Kelce is going up against the second best overall defense against opposing TE’s. Couple that with the fact that Maclin is catching TD’s from Smith and I can see this as an easy fade option in week one. -Luke

3. Russell Wilson: Yes, I know he's got Jimmy Graham... but I think Seattle controls this game through defense and Marshawn Lynch. This is going to be low-scoring, so I think that Wilson doesn't live up the the Top-10 ranking he has this week. -Noah

4. Matt Forte: Pick a reason... but mine include fewer targets in the passing game and the Bears playing catch-up all game to Green Bay's high octane offense. I love the (banged up) Bears receiving corps here, but I doubt Forte sees nearly as many touches as he'd need to justify his weekly projection. -Noah