News From the Underground, 6.26.2015

Luke B. & Noah D.

Good morning everyone! Here at TOFFG, we want to make you some of the best informed fantasy players out there. Therefore, in addition to our regular articles we’ll be publishing this weekly news column to dive deeper into some news items.

Here’s how it works: Luke or I identify a player that is increasing or decreasing in value - Moving Up or Moving Down. Players moving up are definite “buys,” even at their current inflated values. Players moving down are definite “sells,” due to rapidly decreasing values. Essentially, we’re trying to tell you where to get on or off the elevator of value, based on the news that leaks out.

Occasionally we’ll write about “Holds” – players whose value may be receiving either temporary boosts or drains, but should not be moved as a result of it. These holds could be in hopes of a value uptick in the future, or a hope that a player’s value will rebound.

Moving Up

Andre Johnson

The Skinny: Andre Johnson is getting glowing reports. According to a blurb from Rotoworld, Andre Johnson and Andrew Luck are already getting that much needed chemistry. Also, Colts reporter Mike Wells said that: “it’s obvious that Andre Johnson will have a significant role in this offense”.

Luke’s Take: I am confident that Andre Johnson will be able to step out from the shadow that was his last couple of years in Houston. The 33 year old Johnson will be filling in the 106/1,355/5TD role that a 33 year old Reggie Wayne had in this offense when Luck was a rookie. Johnson’s dynasty ADP is 82nd overall, and his redraft ADP is 43rd overall. These ADP positions seem almost spot on, so get him quick. If he climbs any higher the value here fizzles.

Noah’s Take: Andre Johnson is going to be catching balls from the first elite quarterback of his career. He averaged a 105/1,502/5TD stat line catching passes from Matt Schaub… and I’m pretty certain Andrew Luck is better than Matt Schaub.

Todd Gurley

The Skinny: Todd Gurley was taken 10th overall by St. Louis and the buzz was that he may have to sit out the first six weeks on the PUP list. According to NFL.com, there is a realistic chance that Gurley could be ready for training camp and see significant playing time at the beginning of the season.

Luke’s Take:  Oh boy, to everyone that was able to snag Gurley at the 1.02 or lower, consider yourselves fortunate for the timing of your rookie drafts. If this news pans out, I will only be landing him in two of my 16 dynasty leagues. In dynasty, Gurley’s ADP is already rather high at 20th overall, but now this news should solidify that draft position. As for redraft, Gurley is 47th overall (the RB23) so expect a huge uptick in his redraft stock if his progress continues to climb.

Noah’s Take: I (and everyone else) love Gurley’s potential in dynasty – the sooner he gets on the field the sooner he can break out. It’s hard for me to justify buying him there – but if you can get him cheap in redraft it could pay dividends when he starts the season. At the very least, get him in redraft to insure your Tre Mason share.

Moving Down

Ryan Williams

The Skinny: It appears that Ryan Williams, the Virginia Tech alum, is starting to fall out of favor in Dallas, partly due to his knee. As a matter of fact, Todd Archer of ESPN Dallas is says that due to his knee, Williams will enter training camp on the roster bubble. As of now, both McFadden and Randle have secured their places on the roster.

Luke’s Take: It would appear that another onion peel is starting to fall from the Dallas Running Back mystery. I honestly expect, as of now, that both Williams and Seastrunk will be left off of the 53-man roster. Then, once the first couple of games are in the books, look for Dallas to either grab a young player off of a practice squad (i.e. Thomas Rawls, Malcolm Brown or even Zach Zenner if he ends up there) or grab a seasoned vet that is still unsigned (like Knowshon Moreno, Ben Tate or even Ray Rice). So this does not bode well for Williams, even though he was given a decent amount of money. For now, I am cooling off of Ryan Williams, which is a shame, because I was stashing him everywhere I could just two months ago. 

Noah’s Take: 4 things:
1. Ryan Williams.
2. Ryan Williams.
3. Ryan Williams.
4. Screw you,Luke. Ryan Williams is awesome. 

Tre Mason

The Skinny: For every player that has an unexpected bump in value (Gurley showing signs of playing more this season, perhaps even starting the season) there is a player that takes a hit to their overall value; for this news, its Tre Mason.

Luke’s Take: Two things have me worried about Tre and his potential for a productive 2015. The first is that Gurley appears to be ahead of schedule. If Gurley can perform well in training camp, any hope of Tre Mason being a top 35-40 back this year is gone. I think that his current ADP should be dipping more into the 90’s or even early 100’s if Gurley performs well in training camp. Because of this, he is staying out of my leagues… until he gets traded. (Hopefully) 

Noah’s Take: Tre Mason is leaner and stronger than he was last year, but he’s competing with Gurley. If you can get his current ADP for him now, you’re stealing.

Holds

Tom Brady

The Skinny: Mike Florio of PFT put out an article in which the New England QB has now stated his case regarding #Deflategate. It sounds like that there will still be time served as punishment for Brady’s apparent role in the issue and this may cause owners of the player (or prospective owners in startup dynasty leagues or redraft leagues) to shy away from him.

Luke’s Take: Tom Brady is currently a polarizing character that needs to go to a good home in redraft leagues. Even if Brady ends up serving the four games, the 37 year old QB will come back looking for revenge. So as long as you can pair him with a trusty QB2 that has an easy start to the season (With a week 4 bye, you will need to find coverage through, potentially, the first five weeks.) Carson Palmer and the Cardinals start out against the Saints, Bears and 49ers. Weeks 4 and 5 puts them against the Rams and Lions though. So if his suspension is lowered, you may only have to suffer through the Ram’s game to get past Brady’s suspension.

As for dynasty, Brady is going at 145 in ADP so his value can only increase once he comes back, so why trade him now as part of a package when you could land a second rounder for him in season? So resist the urge to move him now, wait until he throws a 4 TD game and then trade him as quickly as possible.

Noah’s Take: A wise man once told me – never bet against Tom Brady. Hold onto him because the owners that are selling want too much, and the owners that are buying want him cheap. Brady is going to tear the league apart this year after all this offseason #Deflategate nonsense – you just need to survive a few games without him to benefit.