Shutup and Listen (Fantasy Football for Mature Audiences)...

has a new post from contributor CKShreve! Check it out using the navigation menu above.

All-Star vs. All-Misfit, Week 5

Another week. Another matchup. Another victory. If this doesn’t sound like you, you should examine your lineup. Ask yourself: Did you start your studs? If the answer is yes, then ask yourself – what could you have done better?

The answer is: Probably nothing.

This has been a wacky fantasy season, and it doesn’t look like that will change. Here’s 5 weekly ways to deal with it:

1 - Cry.
2 - Ask your respective god(s) “WHY?!”
3 - Turn to your friend and yell “Who the hell is Branden Oliver anyway?!”
4 - Sit in shell-shocked silence. Consider the global implications of the Ebolapocalypse.
5 - Suck it up because it’s fantasy football.

Besides, even All-Stars don’t win all the time. Hence, the weekly All-Star vs. All-Misfit matchup.

Just a reminder - The All-Star team contains the top players from each position in terms of Average Draft Positions. For instance, Peyton Manning was the first quarterback off of most boards this year. Therefore, he’s the weekly All-Star QB. If the All-Star player has a bye, I go to the next person at that position by ADP (when Manning is out, I go to Aaron Rodgers, the second QB off the board). The All-Misfit team contains the players that nobody expected to score, but hit paydirt. This team will change drastically week-to-week, as no player can be on it consecutive weeks.

The scoring is ESPN standard, and the team format is: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, D/ST, K.

Without further ado, here is your Week 5 All-Star team!

QB: Peyton Manning – 31 points
RB: LeSean McCoy – 6 points
RB: Jamaal Charles – 8 points
WR: Calvin Johnson – 0 point
WR: Demaryius Thomas – 34 points
TE: Jimmy Graham – 3 points
D/ST: Seahawks - 2 points
K: Stephen Gostkowski – 21 points

Total: 105 points

Calvin Johnson put another dud, and he may be absent from this team next week if he’s inactive. Demaryius Thomas owners are relieved to see he had a huge game – this should continue. Unfortunately for LeSean McCoy owners, he’s behind a terrible defensive line and is likely a high RB2 with top 3 RB upside – if the O-Line figures out what they’re doing. Jimmy Graham’s bye couldn’t have come at a better time – he should be fine coming out of it. And those of you who drafted the Seahawks in the 7^th round – how does that feel now?

Here’s the All-Misfit team!

QB: Austin Davis – 26 points
RB: Branden Oliver – 29 points
RB: Pierre Thomas – 22 points
WR: Kendall Wright – 20 points
WR: Brian Quick – 20 points
TE: Tim Wright – 14 points
D/ST: Packers – 23 points
K: Phil Dawson – 20 points

Total: 174 points

Well, this is a hodgepodge of mediocrity. Davis looked solid, and something may come of that performance. Kendall Wright finally had the performance his owners have been waiting for. Brian Quick is also a legit WR and will be top-20 the rest of the way, especially in PPR leagues. However, Pierre Thomas and Branden Oliver are flashes-in-the-pan. Oliver’s performance against a usually rock-solid Jets D/ST came when the defense was gassed beyond belief. He’s worth a look until Donald Brown comes back, but is no better than Danny Woodhead in this offense. Tim Wright could have value but it will be unpredictable, so you have better options out there. As for Pierre Thomas – if you have him, make an offer to every single other team in your league. Maybe someone will buy into his huge game. But you’re not going to get Brandon Marshall for him.

VICTORY: MISFITS!

Photo Credit

Post-Week 5 Waiver Picking

QUARTERBACKS

Joe Flacco (@ Tampa Bay)

Flacco was sacked a few times last week against Indianapolis, but that was due to recently filled holes on their O-Line. With some experience under their belt this week, they have a great matchup against Tampa Bay. He’s a good flier this week.

Andy Dalton (vs. Carolina)

I normally don’t like Andy Dalton, but he’s got a good matchup against a struggling Carolina defense. At home after an embarrassing loss to the Pats, I think Dalton reignites his connection with AJ Green and airs it out both to Green and somewhat to Bernard.

Desperation Pick-Up: Kirk Cousins (@ Arizona)

Cousins was impressive against what many consider to be the best defense in the league – he didn’t turn it over at all and connected on some deep throws. You could do worse this week.

Avoid! – Tony Romo (@ Seattle)

Seattle will be out for blood this week after they allowed the Redskins to stay in the game too long. Expect them to attack the Cowboys with all they have. Because this is a run-first offense and Seattle is at home, stay away from Romo.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Justin Hunter (vs. Jacksonville)

Well, looks like Justin Hunter decided to show up. He’s a huge physical talent and will get open frequently against Jacksonville. This should be just like practice for him.

Brian Quick (vs. San Francisco)

The number one wide receiver on a team that has dedicated themselves to throwing the ball. Why Quick isn’t owned in more leagues, I do not know. Grab him.

Desperation Pick-Up: Odell Beckham Jr. (@ Philadelphia)

He grabbed a TD last week, and like Hunter is a great talent. The Giants will feed him, and he’ll do passing well against a porous Philadelphia secondary.

Avoid! – Greg Jennings (vs. Detroit)

He’s an afterthought in this offense. Jarius Wright and Cordarrelle Patterson are where it’s at in Minnesota.

RUNNING BACKS (aka Slim Pickin’s)

Andre Williams (@ Philadelphia)

The Giants offense is clicking, and they can definitely run the ball. As the clear backup to an injured Rashad Jennings, Williams will get the majority of the touches over the next few weeks. He will be a solid RB2 until Jennings comes back.

Ronnie Hillman (@ NYJ)

The Broncos have repeatedly said they want to have a dynamic run game. Now that Montee Ball is out of the mix for a while, the most likely beneficiary is Hillman. He’s a dynamic back and could carry the load. If he does well, he may have the job for the rest of the year.

Desperation Pick-Up: Brandin Oliver (@ Oakland)

Yes, he exploded this past week. However, it came against an exhausted Jets defense who were on the field constantly. I don’t think he’s a long term solution, but he has a good matchup and would serve as a decent plug and play this week.

Avoid: Patriots Running Backs (@ Buffalo)

Ridley looked great last week – their O-Line really clicked. But so did Vereen. The back situation here is completely muddled, and on the road against Buffalo is not where you want to find out that you got Belichick’d.

TIGHT ENDS

Heath Miller (@ Cleveland)

How many times do I have to say this: Heath Miller is legit. He’s awesome. Big Ben likes him. Grab him. Start him. He’s reliable.

Owen Daniels (@ Tampa Bay)

Daniels looks good in Baltimore – and he’s got a good matchup against Tampa Bay. He’s one of Flacco’s favorite targets and a good red-zone threat. I expect him to get into the endzone this week.

Desperation Pick-Up: Luke Willson (vs. Dallas)

Willson did well in blocking and has good receiving tools. With Zach Miller out, he’s the clear primary TE option in Seattle, with a decent matchup against Dallas. You could do worse.

Avoid: Zach Ertz (vs. NYG)

I like Ertz, and I like him in this offense. However, Sproles and McCoy are getting some of the short work, and the Giants are good against tight ends. If you can, I’d avoid him this week.

Defense/Special Teams

San Diego Chargers (@ Oakland)

The Chargers’ defense looks good, lately. They have a great matchup against Oakland this week. If they’re available in your league, you should use them. If you were smart enough to grab them the last two weeks, then keep using them.

Green Bay Packers (@ Miami)

Even though they’re going on the road to Miami, the Packers should get it done this week. Ryan Tannehill will probably turn it over a few times, and the Packers defense may even score here.

Desperation Pick: Baltimore Ravens (@ Tampa Bay)

I guess it’s Ravens week here. Tampa Bay is a good matchup for any defense this season. If you’re in a deeper league, look here.

Avoid: Houston Texans (vs Indianapolis)

Andrew Luck is coming to town. As awesome as JJ Watt is, there is only one of him. All the weapons the Colts have will result in a tough day for Houston.

Photo Credit

There Are Mistakes... and Then There's You.

If you can tell me week to week who will be the highest scoring players in fantasy, then I will call you a genius and soon-to-be millionaire.

That said, we can make educated guesses based on production and matchups. That’s where the phrase “Always start your studs” comes from. It’s why you start Matt Forte over Robert Turbin. Sure- Turbin may bust off an 80 yard touchdown run. But you’d still be an idiot to start him if Marshawn Lynch is healthy. Matt Forte catches and runs in a pretty good offense – his talent, opportunity, and production make him the obvious start.

Because we have this relative predictability, you can pretty much always tell when someone has made a less-than-intelligent move. You know what I’m talking about – when someone trades a stud for two scrubs who have had big games. You look at it, scratch your head, give a sigh and move on. Unless you’re on the receiving end of that trade. That’s when you watch your season tank.

This column is dedicated to the mistakes.

Since I began writing this blog, our readership has steadily grown. This is the first article that includes reader letters. If you recognize something from your league, chuckle along. If you’re the guy who made the bonehead move… sorry ‘bout it. Here we go!

Dear TOFFG -

I have a buddy in a two quarterback league. The guy he's playing dropped Tom Brady in order to sign ... Charlie Whitehurst. Bonehead move?

-JM

You know what – I don’t hate this move. Brady has looked terrible and the Titans have weapons. However, it’s Tom Brady… and it’s Charlie Whitehurst. I would drop Tom Brady in a standard league, but not necessarily in a two-quarterback league. And certainly not for Charlie Whitehurst. Whitehurst didn’t choke this week, but some other available QB’s I like better than him include Blakes Bortles, Brian Hoyer, and maybe even Joe Flacco. Charlie Whitehurst is a backup quarterback.

Here’s another:

I traded Peyton [Manning]  for Aaron Rodgers and AJ Green after the Rodgers injury last season.

-CS

I know that this didn’t work out for the guy. He toughed it out, but Rodgers was out for a lot longer than anyone thought. On its face, it doesn’t look like as much of a boneheaded move. However, once you break it down – you should have avoided this. 1^st mistake – trading for an injured quarterback. 2^nd mistake – trading away the number 1 quarterback. When you trade Peyton Manning away for an injured QB, even if that QB is Aaron Rodgers, you’re going to lose. At least you got AJ Green out of it – he probably helped you make the playoffs, even if you weren’t going to win the league.

Here's a truly dumb move from about two weeks ago, when Jamaal Charles missed a week with what was called a "high ankle sprain."

Dear TOFFG -

Just got offered Jamaal Charles for Terrance West. Thoughts?

-JS

My response - "Jesus Christ, take the trade. Take the trade and run. Seriously, do you play with drug addicts?"

Week 5 Game Picks (and How They Affect Your Fantasy Team)

Here's something new for you - who I think is going to win each game this weekend, and who I think are going to be the best fantasy players in each matchup.

... That's it, actually. Here we go.

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants

Pick: Giants
Falcons Fantasy Leader – Julio Jones, WR
Giants Fantasy Leader – Eli Manning, QB

Eli’s offense is in a groove, and I think he finds his receivers for a few scores. This is going to be a huge shootout, but I can see Julio exploding for oodles of yardage. I mean, what else are the Falcons gonna do – run it?

Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers

Pick: Bears
Bears Fantasy Leader – Matt Forte, RB
Panthers Fantasy Leader – Kelvin Benjamin, WR

The Panthers defense is atrocious, and the Bears will move the ball how and when they want. Marshall, Cutler, and Jeffery will all do well, but I think Forte blows up. For the Panthers – Benjamin has been a reliable fantasy asset, and they can’t run the ball.

Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans

Pick: Browns
Browns Fantasy Leader – Jordan Cameron, TE
Titans Fantasy Leader – Delanie Walker, TE

This outcome is a toss-up, but the best fantasy options for both teams are clear-cut. You can’t trust Hoyer, Tate, Crowell, or Hawkins to be consistent. You can’t trust Locker, Wright, Hunter, or Sankey to be consistent. But these tight ends? They’re studs.

St. Louis Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles

Pick: Eagles
Rams Fantasy Leader – Brian Quick, WR
Eagles Fantasy Leader – LeSean McCoy, RB

The Eagles are going to destroy the Rams, and it’s not going to be close. McCoy gets the most points because he’s frustrated from the last two weeks and he gets a lot of clock-control time. Play Brian Quick for the Rams, because he’s the only consistent receiver they have.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints

Pick: Saints
Buccaneers Fantasy Leader – Vincent Jackson, WR
Saints Fantasy Leader – Drew Brees, QB

The Saints, at home, coming off an embarrassing loss to the Cowboys? Brees is going to air it out. I also think Jimmy Graham and Brandin Cooks have great days here. On the other side of the ball, the Bucs will exploit the most overrated defense in football, and Vincent Jackson will be the beneficiary.

Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys

Pick: Texans
Texans Fantasy Leader – DeAndre Hopkins, WR
Cowboys Fantasy Leader – DeMarco Murray, RB

If I had any balls, I’d pick J.J. Watt to be the Texans leader. But unless you’re in an IDP league, you can’t start him. So take DeAndre Hopkins and run with him, because he’s got talent and volume of targets. DeMarco Murray will be fed – fast and frequently. The Cowboys are now a running team.

Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions

Pick: Lions
Bills Fantasy Leader – Sammy Watkins, WR
Lions Fantasy Leader – Reggie Bush, RB

Both of these teams have great run defenses, meaning that they’ll have to lean on their passing game. However, while I expect this to benefit Watkins on the Bills’ side, Bush will be the biggest beneficiary for the Lions. Calvin Johnson had a dud last week and may be limited this game, and Tate is dealing with hamstring issues. Bush has soft hands, and has proven in years past that he can produce when he receives 20+ touches.

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts

Pick: Colts
Ravens Fantasy Leader – Steve Smith Sr., WR
Colts Fantasy Leader – Andrew Luck, QB

This will also be a shootout. However, I expect Flacco to focus in on Smith Sr., because the guy is on a hot streak. Luck will pass the ball around to all his receiving threats, and may even run one in here. Oh, and did I mention the Raven’s D/ST has only 1 pick and 4 sacks this year? Go get Luck-y.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Steelers
Steelers Fantasy Leader – Antonio Brown, WR
Jaguars Fantasy Leader – Allen Hurns, WR

The only analysis needed for this pick is why I chose Brown over Le’Veon Bell. It’s because I expect the Steelers to get up quickly and sit Bell by the fourth to avoid freak injuries. Brown will rack up the yardage and TD’s in the time before the Steelers put in the second string.

Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos

Pick: Broncos
Cardinals Fantasy Leader – Andre Ellington, RB
Broncos Fantasy Leader – Julius Thomas, TE

This is going to be a great game. Ellington will find some open ground to move and catch, while Thomas will find the endzone for at least a pair of scores. Really, the only players I don’t like in this matchup are Montee Ball (Cardinal’s run defense is pretty good) and Larry Fitzgerald (big name, bad production this year).

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers

Pick: Chiefs
Chiefs Fantasy Leader – Jamaal Charles, RB
49ers Fantasy Leader – Colin Kaepernick, QB

I’m going against the popular consensus by picking the Chiefs and Charles here, but I think he stays hot and gets it done against a good 49ers defense. I also think Kaepernick runs for a touchdown, but the Chiefs pull out a close one.

New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers

Pick: Chargers
Jets Fantasy Leader – Bishop Sankey, RB
Chargers Fantasy Leader – Eddie Royal, WR

Geno Smith will turn it over a few times in this game, and the Jets will have to go to Sankey just to keep drives going (he’s going to be hot here). And… I guess I’m all in on Eddie Royal this week. Watch that blow up in my face.

Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots

Pick: Bengals
Bengals Fantasy Leader – Giovani Bernard, RB
Patriots Fantasy Leader – Julian Edelman, WR

The Pats were embarrassed last week, so coming home they’ll get the ball moving by hitting their best wide receiver frequently. On the Bengal’s side of the ball – they go to their strong ground attack to keep the Patriot’s defense on the field and to wear down the Pats by the 4^th quarter.

Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins

Pick: Seahawks
Seahawks Fantasy Leader – Percy Harvin, WR
Redskins Fantasy Leader – Kai Forbath, K

Ok, so I don’t really expect Forbath to be the highest fantasy scoring Redskin. I think it will be whoever starts at TE (Niles Paul or Jordan Reed). But because we have no idea who is going to start between them, I picked the only guy I expect to score for Washington. Also – I think Harvin returns one for a touchdown here.


Photo Credit

All-Star vs. All-Misfit, Week 4

You know what an all-star team looks like. Superstars at every position, dominating everything. However, 2014 is a strange fantasy year. Our expected superstars are looking like super-duds, while some misfits are rising to prominence.

Enter: the weekly All-Star versus All-Misfit matchup.

The All-Star team contains the top players from each position in terms of Average Draft Positions. For instance, Peyton Manning was the first quarterback off of most boards this year. Therefore, he’s the weekly All-Star QB. If the All-Star player has a bye, I go to the next person at that position by ADP (when Manning is out, I go to Aaron Rodgers, the second QB off the board).

The All-Misfit team contains the players that nobody expected to score, but hit paydirt. This team will change drastically week-to-week, as no player can be on it consecutive weeks.

The scoring is ESPN standard, and the team format is: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, D/ST, K.

Without further ado, here is your Week 4 All-Star team!

QB: Aaron Rodgers – 28 points
RB: LeSean McCoy – 1 point
RB: Jamaal Charles – 28 points
WR: Calvin Johnson – 1 point
WR: Dez Bryant – 10 points
TE: Jimmy Graham – 12 points
D/ST: Panthers - -8 points
K: Stephen Gostkowski – 2 points

Total: 74 points

Jamaal Charles and Aaron Rodgers saved this team from total disaster this week. With Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, and the Seahawks D/ST on bye this week, only Rodgers showed up as a replacement to do anything. In fact, the Panthers D/ST is now a poster-child for why you never draft a D/ST before the second-to-last round.

Here’s the All-Misfit team!

QB: Ryan Tannehill – 20 points
RB: Jerick McKinnon – 14 points
RB: Knile Davis – 11 points
WR: Eddie Royal – 22 points
WR: Brandon LaFell – 17 points
TE: Larry Donnell – 23 points
D/ST: Eagles – 23 points
K: Blair Walsh – 17 points

Total: 147 points

Rarely do you see the back-up to one of the starting All-Star players score enough to make the misfits (looking at you, Knile Davis). Notables on the misfit team are: Larry Donnell (who didn’t start himself in fantasy), Eddie Royal (the eternal fantasy football zombie from Virginia Tech), and the Eagles D/ST (who outscored the offense… see LeSean McCoy above).

VICTORY: MISFITS!

Photo credit

Shutup and Listen, Fantasy Football for Mature Audiences...

...has a new post from contributor CKShreve! Check out his weekly MFK by using the menu above.