Luke's FLEXology Report, Week 3

TOFFG Writer (and Workout Buff) Luke B. shares his outlook on who you should start in your FLEX this week! 

Luke Celebrates his FLEXology report.

Quarterback

Start: Andy Dalton (QB17) I am by no means a Dalton-Truther. I personally feel that Dalton is the dividing line at which QB’s listed above him are rosterable and those under him are not (unless you stream that position). That being said, in week 3 Dalton still has all of his passing options healthy and ready to play against a surprisingly mediocre Baltimore defense (14th against the pass, 23rd against the rush). If things start off the way Cincinnati wants it to, they could start out throwing the ball at will and then finish the game with Jeremy Hill running down the clock.

Avoid: Drew Brees (QB10) For this week, if Brees plays, he is ranked as a starting QB; however, with the secrecy surrounding his shoulder injury and the matchup against and his matchup against the 2nd rated passing defense with the Carolina Panthers, I do not expect his week to go well.

Running Back

Start: Frank Gore (RB41) Now that the real defenses have left their negative mark on IND (BUF and NYJ), it is time to see what the IND offense is made of as they take on supposed less talented teams. Week 3 puts Gore up against a TEN defense that is 3rd against the pass (thanks to an odd first week against TB) but only 17th against the run. So if Gore is ever going to have a breakout in this offense, it is now.

To help illustrate this, I offer you Isaiah Crowell: In week one, against the Jets (which is who Gore just faced), Crowell ran for 20 yards on 12 attempts (1.7 ypc). The following week, Crowell ran 72 yards on 15 attempts (4.8 ypc) and 1 TD against the Titans (which Gore has in week 3).

I look for Gore to bounce back in the same way. In week 2, Gore had 57 yards on 15 attempts. Look for that yardage to be much higher on about the same amount of work.

Avoid: Joseph Randle (RB7) With Romo being out, and Brandon Weeden being given the starting role (for now), it would be safe to assume that Dallas should be leaning on their run game. However, Randle has not yet proven his capability to shoulder the load of starting RB. Instead, I see a 3 to 4 head monster out of the backfield with Randle, McFadden, Michael and Dunbar all having their turn to carry or catch the rock.

The matchup is also against a surprisingly decent ATL rush defense (13th overall). It will be interesting to see how DAL manages to put up points in week 3, especially against Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.

Wide Receiver

Start: Doug Baldwin (WR40) In week one, it was the “Kearse Show” in SEA but last week things returned to normal as Baldwin was the most targeted option by Wilson in Green Bay. I look for that to continue this week (along with some more targets to Graham, PLEASE) as SEA faces a much easier opponent in Chicago; GB ranks 8th against the pass on defense, CHI ranks dead last. I expect to see Baldwin having a lot of deep targets this week and expect him to be able to convert that into winning some of his faithful owners their weekly contests.

Avoid: Calvin Johnson (WR12) My avoid option this week is Megatron. Simply put, I do not trust Matthew Stafford. I have not seen many QB’s start out with so much promise as a rookie, only to regress back into such a mediocre talent. Even as recently as last year, I would have put him in the top 6-7 as a dynasty QB prospect, but watching him play now makes me very concerned for the DET offense as a whole. Couple that with the matchup against the best team in the league against the pass and it is going to be a long day for Megatron. The attention put on him may free up points for Golden Tate, but I expect Calvin to have a bad week which would knock him out being a starer for me.

Tight End

Start: Crockett Gilmore (TE19) So was Gillmore’s breakout against OAK land in week 2 an anomaly? With OAK being the worst team against the TE, it may very well turn out that Gillmore will go back into aether of irrelevance. However, this week, as I said way back on Dalton in this article, I expect CIN to come out and set the tone by getting ahead early against BAL. To counteract this, Joe Flacco will need to throw the ball and, if last week is any indication, that will mean targets are going to be coming Gillmore’s way. Cincinnati’s passing defense is not bad at all, ranking 7th overall but the opportunity will be there for Gillmore. He could sneak into the top 12 for the week.

Avoid: Jason Witten (TE9) As of now Witten is playing and is being touted as an important part of keeping DAL chugging along while they wait for both Romo and Bryant to return. My issue with this being a reality is based on the injuries he suffered last week (spraining both ankles and a knee) and his matchup, as ATL is 15th against the pass. I expect him to play, but I do not seeing him putting up starting TE numbers for this week based on the situation. If he does not play or plays poorly, I would look for Dunbar to be utilized as opposed to Gavin Escobar.

Bonus Observation to Keep an Eye On

Two of the highest games for a TE not named Gronk have occurred with one very interesting commonality: In week one Tyler Eifert had 9 catches on 12 targets for 109 yards and 2 TD’s (which beat out Kelce’s big week by just 3 yards; 106 yards and 2 TD’s against the Texans). Then, in week 2, Crockett Gillmore had 5 catches on 6 targets for 88 yards and 2 TD’s.

The common thread here is that both of these TE’s had a total of 194 yards and 4 TD’s against the Oakland Defense; Oakland currently ranks 30th in pass defesne and 25th in rush defense. This week they have the Cleveland Browns as their opponent, which runs more of a “Tight End By Committee" approach. If Gary Barnidge has an above average outing against OAK, I would start viewing the Raiders as a candidate to play any streamable TE’s that face them. (If I do not have an obvious start at the position already.

Also, last bonus point for those of us that look ahead to week 16 to prep for the big championship weekend, Antonio Gates is the TE you want as San Diego is Oakland’s week 16 matchup.

You’re welcome.