Building A DFS Roster (Plus sample rosters for Week 2)

By Luke B.

In this article I am going to take a look at my favorite lineups going into week 2. The first one will be my favorite cash game lineup, followed by my favorite tourney lineup, and finally a list of other players I like based on their value. Let me know what you guys think in the comment section below. ***All players and their costs are based on Draft Kings***

In cash games (example: 50/50’s), your goal is to reach a 3:1 ratio for points to cost. (3 points for every $1000 spent) so you are looking for players with a high floor as opposed to high risk/reward players. With that in mind, this is my cash lineup:

Cash Game Lineup for Week 2

Pos	Player	Cost of Player	Points Needed to Offset Cost (x3)
QB	Matt Ryan	$7,400	22.20 points
RB	Carlos Hyde	$5,100	15.30 points
RB	Mark Ingram	$5,900	17.70 points
WR	Julio Jones	$8,900	26.70 points
WR	John Brown	$5,100	15.30 points
WR	Kendall Wright	$5,000	15.00 points
TE	Michael Bennett	$4,500	13.50 points
FL	Greg Olsen	$4,900	14.70 points
DF	Baltimore Ravens	$2,900	8.70 points
TOT	9 Players	$49,700	149.10 points

1.     As one of my favorite stacks of the week, I expect Matt Ryan and Julio Jones to do well against a NYG team that ranked 30th in pass defense last week.

2.    My running back options are both playing against medium rush defenses and play for teams that should utilize their pass catching running backs for a large percentage of the total offense.

3.    My wide receivers include John Brown and Kendall Wright. They are both great values in a PPR format and both have a good chance of scoring a TD.

4.    I have two TE’s in this lineup because I expect high floors out of both based on their matchups. I could have gone with either Moncrief or Davante Adams but like my chances with the better.

5.    Finally, on defense I went with Baltimore. I feel that the Oakland Raiders will have a hard time offensively against the Ravens this week.

Now, here is my tourney lineup in which the goal is to go with players that have a high boom/bust possibility in the hopes of scoring roughly a 1:5 ratio between cost and points (5 points for every $1000 spent). With that in mind, here is my tournament lineup:

Tournament Lineup for Week 2

Pos	Player	Cost of Player	Post Needed to Offset Cost (x5)
QB	Sam Bradford	$6,900	34.50 points
RB	Ameer Abdullah	$4,500	22.50 points
RB	Jeremy Hill	$7,400	29.50 points
WR	Jordan Matthews	$7,100	35.50 points
WR	Donte Moncrief	$4,600	23.00 points
WR	Kendall Wright	$5,000	25.00 points
TE	Austin Sefarian-Jenkins	$4,100	20.50 points
FL	DeAndre Hopkins	$7,400	37.50 points
DF	Baltimore Ravens	$2,900	14.50 points
TOT	9 Players	$49,900	242.50 points

1.    I went with another stack in this one. My hope is that a lot of people are off of Bradford as an option after his less than spectacular week 1. I am also hoping that the Bradford/Matthews connection will continue into this weekend as it seemed Bradford only had eyes for Matthews for most of the game.

2.    As for the running backs, I went with one higher cost player in Hill that I expect to have a high floor on the week with a decent chance for more. I also then went with a high boom/bust player at a value with Ameer Abdullah. After last week, his x5 total is only 22.50 points and he could cover that against MIN.

3.    With the wide receivers, I went with Matthews due to the high upside with Bradford. I also went with the high cost of Hopkins after learning that Mallett will be getting the start and expect him to do well against CAR’s secondary. Finally, I went with two value plays with upside. I first took Kendall Wright, in the hopes that he can have a good PPR game against CLE. Then I took Moncrief at $4,600, hoping that his week 1 numbers remain at least on par with this week.

4.    At TE, I went with Austin Sefarian-Jenkins as he was $3,100 dollars cheaper than Gronkowski, (at $4,100) and is going up against a New Orleans defense that allowed ARi’s TE Darren Fells to get 82 yards and a touch down on just four targets. This could turn out to be even better if Evans does not play.

5.    Finally, at Defense, I went with Baltimore as I expect them to do well shutting down the OAK offense.

Finally, here is a list of a few value plays I like when you looking for deals to fill in the gaps on your lineups:

Pos	Player	Cost of Player
QB	Carson Palmer vs 26th ranked CHI (Cash)	$6,700
QB	Jameis Winston vs 32nd ranked NO  (GPP)	$5,600
RB	Carlos Hyde vs 14th ranked PIT (Cash)	$5,100
RB	T.J. Yeldon vs 17th ranked MIA  (GPP)	$4,800
RB	Tevin Coleman vs 25th ranked NYG (Cash)	$4,500
WR	Kendall Wright vs 25th ranked CLE (Both)	$5,000
WR	John Brown vs 13th ranked CHI (Cash)	$5,100
WR	Pierre Garcon vs 26th ranked WASH (GPP)	$5,000
WR	Terrance Williams vs 30th ranked PHI (GPP)	$4,200
TE	Greg Olsen vs 29th ranked HOU (Both)	$4,900
TE	Jordan Reed vs 23rd ranked STL (GPP)	$3,700
DF	Baltimore Ravens vs 20th ranked OAK (Both)	$2,900
DF	San Fran 49ers vs 12th ranked PIT (GPP)	$2,700

Luke's FLEXology Report, Week 2

TOFFG Writer (and Mad Scientist) Luke B. shares his outlook on who you should start in your FLEX this week!

Running Back

Start: Bishop Sankey TEN (RB29 for week 2):

In week one Bishop Sankey went 74 yards on 12 attempts and a score for a 6 yard average. Terrance West, who was recently added to the Tennessee roster via a trade, was given one more rush than Sankey (13) during garbage time at the end of the game but he only yielded 41 rushing yards for just over a 3 yard average. Sankey now faces the 24th ranked rushing defense that allowed Chris Ivory to gain 91 yards on 20 attempts and score 2 touchdowns. I like Sankey to see RB2 numbers in this one.

Avoid: DeAngelo Williams PIT (RB22 for week 2):

In week one, DeAngelo Williams went 127 yards on 21 carries for a 6 yard average and was the only true rushing threat that Pittsburgh had against New England. This is the last week for Williams owners to utilize his RB1-RB2 potential before LeVeon Bell comes back next week. So one might think that this would be a good time to flex in that late round option that was a low end RB1 in week one, right? Well, in week 2 Pittsburgh goes up against an empowered San Francisco team that ranks 6th overall. I look for Willaims to miss out of even RB2 numbers as the passing game will have to step up this week to score against a surprisingly stingy defense and an equally surprising strong rushing offense.

Wide Receiver

Start: Sammie Watkins BUF (WR27 for week 2):

So last week Sammie had a horrible outing in Buffalo’s win against Indianapolis. He was targeted 3 times and did not catch a single ball. Instead, it was Percy Harvin that showed up (which was called by my TOFFG colleague, Noah last week). Percy caught all 5 of his targets for 79 yards and the lone receiving touchdown. So how does Sammie fit into a good flex play after posting a goose egg the week before and with going against New England? First, is that Sammie was part of the game plan in week 1; it was Tyrod under throwing Sammie that led to his 0 catch line and one of those targets would have gone for over 50 yards and a touchdown. Second, is the overall volatility that is the Buffalo offense with a quarterback like Tyrod under center; given time Sammie’s talent will make him rise to the top. Finally, The New England defense ranked 25th last week in part by allowing 4 receiving options to get at least 50 yards in the air. I expect Sammie to bounce back as a low end WR2 as the defense should allow for ample opportunity.

Avoid: James Jones GB (WR20 for week 2):

In week one, James Jones went 51 yards catching all 4 of his targets for 2 touchdowns, making Davante Adams owners curse at the fantasy gods for allowing the New York Giants to release Jones in the pre season. Jones also looks to be in a good spot, facing the 26th ranked passing defense in Seattle; however, there are a couple of aspects that make me take pause on expecting Jones to be a WR2. First, the target distribution was only 4 targets for Jones verses 8 for Adams and 5 for Cobb. If this holds up, Adams and Cobb should both get more targets and Jones should see most of his targets in the red zone. Finally, although Seattle lost a heartbreaker to St. Louis, Seattle did not allow a red zone passing TD in that loss, which is where Jones scored both of his TD’s. I do not see Jones being a WR2 this week as I expect any red zone passes to go over the middle, into the soft spot of Seattle’s secondary, which would more than likely make Cobb the target.

Tight End

Start: Dwayne Allen IND (TE13 for week 2)

In week one, Dwayne Allen went only 17 yards on 3 receptions, scoring once against a stingy Buffalo defense. Now Indianapolis faces the New York Jets, which are currently 5th overall in team defense after beating Cleveland last week. That being said, here are a few thoughts as to why Allen should do better: First, Allen was targeted 6 times and Fleener was only targeted once. Second, Allen saw 68% of the snaps (52 plays) to Fleener’s 48% (37 plays). So it is apparent that Allen will have more opportunities through out the game. Finally, the Jets defense allowed for a lot of short to intermediate passes to be converted by Johnny Manziel, which shows that while New York is strong on the defensive line and in the secondary, Allen is in prime position to be targeted often; if Hilton does not play, Luck may need to lean on Allen so I expect him to easily be a mid to low end starting TE play this week.

Avoid: Jordan Cameron MIA (TE9 for week 2):

In week one, Cameron had 73 yards on 4 receptions and was the second most targeted player next to Jarvis Landry. It would seem that Miami Quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, is learning to lean on his new tight end. However, I am avoiding Cameron this week based on the matchup against Jacksonville. In week one, the Jaguars were able to hold a much better tight end option in Greg Olsen to just 1 catch for 11 yards on 3 targets. I cannot see how Cameron will do much better as his decent receiving numbers were against the Washington Redskins. I expect Miami to utilize Lamar Miller more to establish the pace of the game and then see Landry Richard Matthews to see most of the targets. Cameron will get his, but not enough to get starting tight end points.

Week 2 Rankings

Weekly rankings, compiled by Luke B. (@darcdawg) are up now! You can view them by clicking here or by using the menu above!

Week 1 Approaches! (Start/Avoid)

Hello everyone, and welcome back to fantasy football.

It's been a while - Luke was off being a dad, while Noah was taking the bar. Needless to say, football is back tonight, and that is beautiful. Your teams are all drafted, and it's time to set your lineups for the weekend. After a long hiatus, we here at TOFFG are here to help, with our weekly Start/Avoid column.

It's fairly self-explanatory, but here's how it works: Each week, Luke and I will each select two players to start and two players to avoid. We'll throw in two sentences why. Our goal here is not to dictate your lineups - if we tell you to Avoid Russell Wilson and he's your only QB, then you don't have much choice. However, we do want to temper your expectations and highlight places where we are concerned (or excited!) about potential production for the week.

Without further ado, here is Week 1 Start/Avoid!

Start:

1.  Ryan Tannehill: Labeled the 11th QB in week one, Tannehill is playing against the 24th ranked passing defense last year. Between Landry, Stills, Parker and Jennings, there are plenty or targets to give Washington fits. -Luke

2. Isaiah Crowell: The third best offensive line is about to go up against the fifth best defensive line in East Rutherford this weekend. With Terrance West being traded to Tennessee and Duke Johnson just getting back on the field from a concussion, Isaiah Crowell should be used to set the tone on offense for Cleveland. -Luke

3. Percy Harvin: Rex Ryan will want to give Tyrod Taylor a safety valve - and that will give Percy Harvin FLEX value this week. I see Harvin lining up for easy screens, in the backfield next to Shady to open running lanes, and occasionally catching a deep ball from Tyrod's cannon. -Noah

4. Jarvis Landry: Ryan Tannehill is going to light up the Redskins. Jarvis Landry will help him do it. - Noah

Avoid:

1. Emmanuel Sanders: Ranked 10th in PPR, Sanders is playing against the 32nd best team against the WR. So it looks like a no-brainer. Unfortunately, this is a new Broncos team and Sanders has said he expects less targets. So I expect to see Sanders to actually end his day at about WR 18-20 as Demaryius gets his targets and CJ Anderson is used to control the game. -Luke

2. Travis Kelce: As the third overall ranked TE for this week, Kelce is going up against the second best overall defense against opposing TE’s. Couple that with the fact that Maclin is catching TD’s from Smith and I can see this as an easy fade option in week one. -Luke

3. Russell Wilson: Yes, I know he's got Jimmy Graham... but I think Seattle controls this game through defense and Marshawn Lynch. This is going to be low-scoring, so I think that Wilson doesn't live up the the Top-10 ranking he has this week. -Noah

4. Matt Forte: Pick a reason... but mine include fewer targets in the passing game and the Bears playing catch-up all game to Green Bay's high octane offense. I love the (banged up) Bears receiving corps here, but I doubt Forte sees nearly as many touches as he'd need to justify his weekly projection. -Noah

News From the Underground, 6.26.2015

Luke B. & Noah D.

Good morning everyone! Here at TOFFG, we want to make you some of the best informed fantasy players out there. Therefore, in addition to our regular articles we’ll be publishing this weekly news column to dive deeper into some news items.

Here’s how it works: Luke or I identify a player that is increasing or decreasing in value - Moving Up or Moving Down. Players moving up are definite “buys,” even at their current inflated values. Players moving down are definite “sells,” due to rapidly decreasing values. Essentially, we’re trying to tell you where to get on or off the elevator of value, based on the news that leaks out.

Occasionally we’ll write about “Holds” – players whose value may be receiving either temporary boosts or drains, but should not be moved as a result of it. These holds could be in hopes of a value uptick in the future, or a hope that a player’s value will rebound.

Moving Up

Andre Johnson

The Skinny: Andre Johnson is getting glowing reports. According to a blurb from Rotoworld, Andre Johnson and Andrew Luck are already getting that much needed chemistry. Also, Colts reporter Mike Wells said that: “it’s obvious that Andre Johnson will have a significant role in this offense”.

Luke’s Take: I am confident that Andre Johnson will be able to step out from the shadow that was his last couple of years in Houston. The 33 year old Johnson will be filling in the 106/1,355/5TD role that a 33 year old Reggie Wayne had in this offense when Luck was a rookie. Johnson’s dynasty ADP is 82nd overall, and his redraft ADP is 43rd overall. These ADP positions seem almost spot on, so get him quick. If he climbs any higher the value here fizzles.

Noah’s Take: Andre Johnson is going to be catching balls from the first elite quarterback of his career. He averaged a 105/1,502/5TD stat line catching passes from Matt Schaub… and I’m pretty certain Andrew Luck is better than Matt Schaub.

Todd Gurley

The Skinny: Todd Gurley was taken 10th overall by St. Louis and the buzz was that he may have to sit out the first six weeks on the PUP list. According to NFL.com, there is a realistic chance that Gurley could be ready for training camp and see significant playing time at the beginning of the season.

Luke’s Take:  Oh boy, to everyone that was able to snag Gurley at the 1.02 or lower, consider yourselves fortunate for the timing of your rookie drafts. If this news pans out, I will only be landing him in two of my 16 dynasty leagues. In dynasty, Gurley’s ADP is already rather high at 20th overall, but now this news should solidify that draft position. As for redraft, Gurley is 47th overall (the RB23) so expect a huge uptick in his redraft stock if his progress continues to climb.

Noah’s Take: I (and everyone else) love Gurley’s potential in dynasty – the sooner he gets on the field the sooner he can break out. It’s hard for me to justify buying him there – but if you can get him cheap in redraft it could pay dividends when he starts the season. At the very least, get him in redraft to insure your Tre Mason share.

Moving Down

Ryan Williams

The Skinny: It appears that Ryan Williams, the Virginia Tech alum, is starting to fall out of favor in Dallas, partly due to his knee. As a matter of fact, Todd Archer of ESPN Dallas is says that due to his knee, Williams will enter training camp on the roster bubble. As of now, both McFadden and Randle have secured their places on the roster.

Luke’s Take: It would appear that another onion peel is starting to fall from the Dallas Running Back mystery. I honestly expect, as of now, that both Williams and Seastrunk will be left off of the 53-man roster. Then, once the first couple of games are in the books, look for Dallas to either grab a young player off of a practice squad (i.e. Thomas Rawls, Malcolm Brown or even Zach Zenner if he ends up there) or grab a seasoned vet that is still unsigned (like Knowshon Moreno, Ben Tate or even Ray Rice). So this does not bode well for Williams, even though he was given a decent amount of money. For now, I am cooling off of Ryan Williams, which is a shame, because I was stashing him everywhere I could just two months ago. 

Noah’s Take: 4 things:
1. Ryan Williams.
2. Ryan Williams.
3. Ryan Williams.
4. Screw you,Luke. Ryan Williams is awesome. 

Tre Mason

The Skinny: For every player that has an unexpected bump in value (Gurley showing signs of playing more this season, perhaps even starting the season) there is a player that takes a hit to their overall value; for this news, its Tre Mason.

Luke’s Take: Two things have me worried about Tre and his potential for a productive 2015. The first is that Gurley appears to be ahead of schedule. If Gurley can perform well in training camp, any hope of Tre Mason being a top 35-40 back this year is gone. I think that his current ADP should be dipping more into the 90’s or even early 100’s if Gurley performs well in training camp. Because of this, he is staying out of my leagues… until he gets traded. (Hopefully) 

Noah’s Take: Tre Mason is leaner and stronger than he was last year, but he’s competing with Gurley. If you can get his current ADP for him now, you’re stealing.

Holds

Tom Brady

The Skinny: Mike Florio of PFT put out an article in which the New England QB has now stated his case regarding #Deflategate. It sounds like that there will still be time served as punishment for Brady’s apparent role in the issue and this may cause owners of the player (or prospective owners in startup dynasty leagues or redraft leagues) to shy away from him.

Luke’s Take: Tom Brady is currently a polarizing character that needs to go to a good home in redraft leagues. Even if Brady ends up serving the four games, the 37 year old QB will come back looking for revenge. So as long as you can pair him with a trusty QB2 that has an easy start to the season (With a week 4 bye, you will need to find coverage through, potentially, the first five weeks.) Carson Palmer and the Cardinals start out against the Saints, Bears and 49ers. Weeks 4 and 5 puts them against the Rams and Lions though. So if his suspension is lowered, you may only have to suffer through the Ram’s game to get past Brady’s suspension.

As for dynasty, Brady is going at 145 in ADP so his value can only increase once he comes back, so why trade him now as part of a package when you could land a second rounder for him in season? So resist the urge to move him now, wait until he throws a 4 TD game and then trade him as quickly as possible.

Noah’s Take: A wise man once told me – never bet against Tom Brady. Hold onto him because the owners that are selling want too much, and the owners that are buying want him cheap. Brady is going to tear the league apart this year after all this offseason #Deflategate nonsense – you just need to survive a few games without him to benefit.

Rankings are here!

Hey all!

Contributor Luke B. has provided Dynasty Startup Rankings! You can use them as a free guide to owning your startup draft, so give yourself an edge and check them out now!

While We're Waiting...

We have a new mock draft! (Click above)

We have a new Dynasty vs. Redraft Article from Luke B.! (Click above)

We have a fun gif! Also, this is relevant. #TerrelleSoFast