Luke's FLEXology report, Week 6

Luke spent a week learning to FLEX with Terry Crews

After a brief hiatus, Luke returns with the FLEXology report! - Luke B.

Quarterback

Flex to Start: Joe Flacco

The best option for a flex QB to give a top 10 week comes from Flacco as he is going up against the 29th ranked pass defense in San Francisco. Last week, against the 28th ranked pass defense, Flacco was able to score 26 points with a skeleton crew at the skilled positions. Now, he may be down Justin Forsett, who had four catches for 49 yards as well as adding 121 yards on the ground on 21 carries, but Buck Allen proved to be serviceable and should fit in decent enough if Forsett cannot go.

Starter to Avoid: Cam Newton

The Carolina Panthers remain undefeated going into week 6, however their one passing weapon of note is Greg Olsen; the rest are simply role players as long as Kelvin is recovering from an ACL tear. Also, Cam is going against the 9th best rush defense so the odds of him being fantasy relevant from his legs are not exactly good. I am staying away from Cam if I am able to.

Running Back

Flex to Start: Lamar Miller

Relegated to the bench in recent weeks, there is new hope for Miller as the Dolphins have fired their head coach, Joe Philbin, and have replaced him with the TE coach, Dan Campbell. While the offense establishes itself under its new coach, the team will need to lean on someone to help stabilize their tailspin. That could be Miller, as Tannehill has been struggling as well. As for Tennessee, they are ranked 27th in rush defense and should help as Miami’s o-line folds under better talent.

Starter to Avoid: Jeremy Hill

With Hill still in the starter spot (if you listen to Hugh Jackson) it may seem like giving him another shot would be appropriate. However, CIN playing against Buffalo this week, who rank 6th according to football outsiders at rush defense. So, even with the questionable offense of BUF, the defense should be able to make the game plan lean more on Giovanni Bernard.

Wide Receiver

Flex to Start: Allen Hurns

Going against the 27th passing defense should allow Hurns to have a start-worthy game, as long as Blake Bortles is the QB. So far, this year, Hurns has 27 receptions for 430 yards and 3 TD’s. 2 of his 5 games have had +100 yards outings. In comparison, Allen Robinson has had 402 yards on 22 receptions and 4 TDs. (2 of which came in his last game).  He has also only had 1 outing that yielded +100 yards. Allen Hurns should prove that his current production is not a fluke against an inferior Houston passing defense.

Starter to Avoid: Julio Jones

Kind of an easy one to call, but it seems that Jones is the latest in a growing list of NFL players to suffer from a hamstring injury that could either make him not play or only play in the hopes of acting as the dreaded decoy. If he does play, this is obviously more than likely a bad call, but as of now I do not think he is going to play. We’ll see Thursday night.

Tight End

Flex to Start: Charles Clay

There are not many options for Buffalo going into this week for probable starter EJ Manuel to throw to. So I expect there to be a lot of opportunity for Clay as he acts as Manuel’s safety blanket. They face CIN, who should get up quickly on Buffalo through the air, so BUF will need to throw in an effort to keep up.

Starter to Avoid: Gary Barnidge

This will be the week that Gary crashes back to Earth, although I do not think he will stay down for long. The Browns will be going up against the number 1 defense in the NFL with the Denver Broncos. I expect the Browns to try and combat this by running the ball as much as possible. By the time, the Browns begin to throw the ball, they could be far enough behind to need to depend on Travis Benjamin and Taylor Gabriel to get down field. 

Building a DFS Roster (Plus Sample Rosters for Week 3)

Article Authored by Luke B.

Playing DFS can be a fickle thing. In the first week I went 4 for 4 in games played and cashed. So in week 2 I took the same approach and ended up 0 for 9. So in week 3, I went back to basics. I looked for stacks that would greatly benefit me. I also tried to create builds that would maximize their returns based on their cost, as well as attempting to fade on players that had too high of an owner percentage. So starting this week, I will be including an owner percentage in an effort to help players better understand what wins and what does not in DFS. With that in mind, here is my lineup for cash games:

Pos	Player	Cost	Points Needed to Offset Cost	Own %
QB	Tom Brady	$7,700	23.10	4%
RB	Marshawn Lynch	$7,400	22.20	15%
RB	James Starks	$3,000	9.00	34%
WR	Julian Edelman	$7,000	21.00	20%
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	$5,800	17.40	27%
WR	Allen Robinson	$5,200	15.60	17%
TE	Tyler Eifert	$4,800	14.40	13%
FL	Donte Moncrief	$4,800	14.40	11%
DF	Seahawks	$3,400	10.20	19%
TOT	9 Players	$49,100	147.30

Expected Points= 166.62      

Stacking: In this lineup I am doing both of the most common stacks with Brady/Edelman (QB/WR) and Lynch/Seahawks (RB/DF) Both of these add value to the overall potential of the lineup due to their connections to one another.

Cause and Effect: Another part of the game is how situations create opportunity. This is the case  with Allen Robinson. His game this week is against New England and it is expected that New England will run up the score, leading to Jacksonville having to throw the ball a lot to try to keep up. This is where Robinson comes in and how Brady effects Robinson.

As for the rest of the roster, Fitzgerald is in a divisional game, Moncrief appears to be in his breakout year (so getting him while he is still relatively cheap) and Tyler Eifert is the favorite target of an offense that is going against a mediocre Baltimore pass defense.

Now on to the next part, here is my General Prize Pool lineup for the week:

Pos	Player	Cost	Points Needed to Offset Cost (x5)	Own %
QB	Tom Brady	$7,700	38.50	4%
RB	Dion Lewis	$4,200	21.00	17%
RB	James Starks	$3,000	15.00	26%
WR	Antonio Brown	$8,900	44.50	28%
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	$5,800	29.00	22%
WR	Allen Robinson	$5,200	26.00	14%
TE	Rob Gronkowski	$7,400	37.00	11%
FL	Donte Moncrief	$4,800	24.00	10%
DF	Denver Broncos	$3,000	15.00	8%
TOT	9 Players	$50,000	150.00

  

Stacking: In this lineup, I have stacked Brady with Gronk, and have also added Dion Lewis as he is a great pass catcher out of the backfield.

As for the rest of the roster, I added James Starks due to his cost, although his 26% ownership does concern me. Antonio Brown has a 28% ownership but I expect him to put up so many points that having him is almost a need to cash in a GPP. As explained in the cash lineup, Fitzgerald is in a divisional matchup and Moncrief is still relatively cheap for his perceived potential. Allen Robinson is also in this lineup and I feel that his connection with Brady can benefit me here as well. Finally, the Denver defense is going to go up against a struggling Detroit team. I expect Denver to be able to score on defense or special teams at some point in the game.

Let me know what you guys think and good luck this weekend in all of your DFS ventures. 

Luke's FLEXology Report, Week 3

TOFFG Writer (and Workout Buff) Luke B. shares his outlook on who you should start in your FLEX this week! 

Luke Celebrates his FLEXology report.

Quarterback

Start: Andy Dalton (QB17) I am by no means a Dalton-Truther. I personally feel that Dalton is the dividing line at which QB’s listed above him are rosterable and those under him are not (unless you stream that position). That being said, in week 3 Dalton still has all of his passing options healthy and ready to play against a surprisingly mediocre Baltimore defense (14th against the pass, 23rd against the rush). If things start off the way Cincinnati wants it to, they could start out throwing the ball at will and then finish the game with Jeremy Hill running down the clock.

Avoid: Drew Brees (QB10) For this week, if Brees plays, he is ranked as a starting QB; however, with the secrecy surrounding his shoulder injury and the matchup against and his matchup against the 2nd rated passing defense with the Carolina Panthers, I do not expect his week to go well.

Running Back

Start: Frank Gore (RB41) Now that the real defenses have left their negative mark on IND (BUF and NYJ), it is time to see what the IND offense is made of as they take on supposed less talented teams. Week 3 puts Gore up against a TEN defense that is 3rd against the pass (thanks to an odd first week against TB) but only 17th against the run. So if Gore is ever going to have a breakout in this offense, it is now.

To help illustrate this, I offer you Isaiah Crowell: In week one, against the Jets (which is who Gore just faced), Crowell ran for 20 yards on 12 attempts (1.7 ypc). The following week, Crowell ran 72 yards on 15 attempts (4.8 ypc) and 1 TD against the Titans (which Gore has in week 3).

I look for Gore to bounce back in the same way. In week 2, Gore had 57 yards on 15 attempts. Look for that yardage to be much higher on about the same amount of work.

Avoid: Joseph Randle (RB7) With Romo being out, and Brandon Weeden being given the starting role (for now), it would be safe to assume that Dallas should be leaning on their run game. However, Randle has not yet proven his capability to shoulder the load of starting RB. Instead, I see a 3 to 4 head monster out of the backfield with Randle, McFadden, Michael and Dunbar all having their turn to carry or catch the rock.

The matchup is also against a surprisingly decent ATL rush defense (13th overall). It will be interesting to see how DAL manages to put up points in week 3, especially against Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.

Wide Receiver

Start: Doug Baldwin (WR40) In week one, it was the “Kearse Show” in SEA but last week things returned to normal as Baldwin was the most targeted option by Wilson in Green Bay. I look for that to continue this week (along with some more targets to Graham, PLEASE) as SEA faces a much easier opponent in Chicago; GB ranks 8th against the pass on defense, CHI ranks dead last. I expect to see Baldwin having a lot of deep targets this week and expect him to be able to convert that into winning some of his faithful owners their weekly contests.

Avoid: Calvin Johnson (WR12) My avoid option this week is Megatron. Simply put, I do not trust Matthew Stafford. I have not seen many QB’s start out with so much promise as a rookie, only to regress back into such a mediocre talent. Even as recently as last year, I would have put him in the top 6-7 as a dynasty QB prospect, but watching him play now makes me very concerned for the DET offense as a whole. Couple that with the matchup against the best team in the league against the pass and it is going to be a long day for Megatron. The attention put on him may free up points for Golden Tate, but I expect Calvin to have a bad week which would knock him out being a starer for me.

Tight End

Start: Crockett Gilmore (TE19) So was Gillmore’s breakout against OAK land in week 2 an anomaly? With OAK being the worst team against the TE, it may very well turn out that Gillmore will go back into aether of irrelevance. However, this week, as I said way back on Dalton in this article, I expect CIN to come out and set the tone by getting ahead early against BAL. To counteract this, Joe Flacco will need to throw the ball and, if last week is any indication, that will mean targets are going to be coming Gillmore’s way. Cincinnati’s passing defense is not bad at all, ranking 7th overall but the opportunity will be there for Gillmore. He could sneak into the top 12 for the week.

Avoid: Jason Witten (TE9) As of now Witten is playing and is being touted as an important part of keeping DAL chugging along while they wait for both Romo and Bryant to return. My issue with this being a reality is based on the injuries he suffered last week (spraining both ankles and a knee) and his matchup, as ATL is 15th against the pass. I expect him to play, but I do not seeing him putting up starting TE numbers for this week based on the situation. If he does not play or plays poorly, I would look for Dunbar to be utilized as opposed to Gavin Escobar.

Bonus Observation to Keep an Eye On

Two of the highest games for a TE not named Gronk have occurred with one very interesting commonality: In week one Tyler Eifert had 9 catches on 12 targets for 109 yards and 2 TD’s (which beat out Kelce’s big week by just 3 yards; 106 yards and 2 TD’s against the Texans). Then, in week 2, Crockett Gillmore had 5 catches on 6 targets for 88 yards and 2 TD’s.

The common thread here is that both of these TE’s had a total of 194 yards and 4 TD’s against the Oakland Defense; Oakland currently ranks 30th in pass defesne and 25th in rush defense. This week they have the Cleveland Browns as their opponent, which runs more of a “Tight End By Committee" approach. If Gary Barnidge has an above average outing against OAK, I would start viewing the Raiders as a candidate to play any streamable TE’s that face them. (If I do not have an obvious start at the position already.

Also, last bonus point for those of us that look ahead to week 16 to prep for the big championship weekend, Antonio Gates is the TE you want as San Diego is Oakland’s week 16 matchup.

You’re welcome. 

Luke's Thursday Injury Report!

Tony Romo QB DAL - During the game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Tony Romo broke his clavicle and is now expected to miss upwards of 10 weeks while he heals.

Outlook: Look for Dallas to start Brandon Weeden at QB while Romo is on the mend. This means an obvious down swing for all Dallas players. It would be great for the running game if they had a true starter at the position, but with the RBBC setup, it will be a “wait and see” approach until Romo and Bryant make their returns towards the end of the fantasy season.

***UPDATE*** Tony Romo is now on IR-Designated-to-Return and is expected to come back my November 22nd against the Miami Dolphins.

Jay Cutler QB CHI - Cutler left the game against Arizona Cardinals due to a hamstring injury and did not return; he is considered day-to-day.

Outlook: Jay Cutler is expected to miss at least two weeks.

Tevin Coleman RB ATL - Coleman left the game against the New York Giants due to a chest injury and did not return.

Outlook: Coleman suffered a broken rib and is now expected to miss a “couple of weeks”. He could play sooner, if his pain tolerance allows.

Lamar Miller RB MIA - Miller left the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars with an ankle injury in the fourth quarter of the game and did not return.

Outlook: The loss of Miller seems to come across a little flat compared to other injuries as he had 10 rushes for just 14 yards in the game. He also had 5 receptions for 28 yards. His backup, Damian Williams, ended up getting the receiving touchdown in the loss. Miller is currently day to day and is questionable for week 3. Hopefully on his return, Miller looks more like the RB2 he was drafted to be.

Jordan Cameron TE MIA - Cameron left the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars early after pulling his groin. After some time on the sideline, Cameron said that he attempted to get back into the game, but his injury did not allow it.

Outlook: Cameron is no stranger to soft tissue issues. During his time with the Cleveland Browns, Cameron suffered through the like issues on multiple occasions. His return is questionable as of now and would follow suit with his prior injuries as they took a couple of weeks to be resolved. Hopefully he can bounce back more quickly this time as he seems to be a favorite target of Tannehill.

Eddie Lacy RB GB - Lacy left the game against the Seattle Seahawks early after suffering an ankle injury that needed x-rays. He did not return and was replaced by James Starks.

Outlook: Thankfully, for Lacy owners, the x-rays came back negative. Now Lacy is day to day and is currently questionable for week 3. We should have a better idea of Lacy’s chances to play sooner rather than later. As for the RB position with Lacy out, Starks did an admirable job and could be a waiver grab if it comes out early that Lacy will be inactive for week 3.

Minor Issues:

1.    Carlos Hyde left the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers with a head injury but was able to return to the game.

2.    Kendall Wright left the game against the Cleveland Browns with a leg injury but was able to return to the game. His role was basically non

3.    Davante Adams left the game against the Seattle Seahawks with an ankle injury but was able to return to the game. His role was limited upon that return.

4.    Matthew Stafford suffered a chest injury that caused him to be checked out after the game. he is currently probable for week 3.

5.    Drew Brees apparently suffered a hard hit that is now being touted as the direct cause to Brees’ game results. His status is currently probable, at this time, for week 3. The latest, as of September 23rd, is that the injury is a bruise and that he could play in week 3.

6.    Tavon Austin  left the game early against the Washington Redskins but was able to return to the game. He was taken to the locker room to receive fluids.

7.    Vance McDonald left the game early against the Pittsburgh Steelers with a knee injury. Not much is known about the injury currently.

Injuries Along the Trench:

1.    Ereck Flowers (OL/Giants) left the game against the Atlanta Falcons early with an ankle injury.

2.    Branden Albert (OL/Dolphins) left the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars early with a hamstring injury.

3.    Jeff Adams (RT/Texans) left the game against the Carolina Panthers early with a leg injury. He returned to the sideline in an air cast.

4.    Chance Warmack (OG/Titans) left the game early against the Cleveland Browns due to a knee ligament strain.

The Defensive Wounded:

1.    Kiko Alonso (LB/Eagles) left the game against the Dallas Cowboys early due to a left knee injury. He is now a game time decision.

2.    Gerald McCoy (DE/Buccaneers) left the game against the New Orleans Saints early due to a shoulder injury. At this time, McCoy says that he is fine.

3.    Aaron Williams (SS/Bills) left the game against the New England Patriots early due to a head/neck injury. He was taken by ambulance to a local hospital and has since been released.

4.    LaMarr Woodley (LB/Cardinals) left the game early against the Chicago Bears due to a shoulder injury; he did not return.

5.    Mychal Kendricks (LB/Eagles) left the game against the Dallas Cowboys early after suffering a hamstring injury; he did not return.

6.    Josh Boyd (DE/Packers) left the game against the Seattle Seahawks early due to an ankle injury.

7.    Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (CB/Giants) left the game against the Atlanta Falcons early due to sustaining a concussion. He is currently in the concussion protocol and is questionable for week 3. 

Week 3 Waiver Picking

You have no idea whether your team is good or not.

I'm serious. It's Week 3, we've had only two games, and you've proven nothing. You're either 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2... and that is all the possibilities. You could have a team that includes Peyton Manning, Eddie Lacy, Jeremy Hill, and Dez Bryant, and still be in dead last. That's a good team. Don't second-guess yourself. This is just an insane start to the fantasy season.

You've got to have a short memory in fantasy football. One week, a player could blow up - then go AWOL for the rest of the season (lookin' at you, Cordarrelle Patterson. Effin' tease.) On the other hand, that player could be showing that they're going to emerge into something great and useful (lookin' at you, Martavis Bryant. Lay off the hash and come back to play). Here at TOFFG, we hope to help you sort through the Fool's Gold (Patterson) and seize the Real Deal (Bryant).

So, without further ado, let's get to it.

Travis Benjamin – Real Deal

I’m convinced Johnny Manziel only throws to this guy because his last name is “Benjamin” and Johnny’s promised not to throw up the “cash” sign anymore. (I’ll let that joke sink in… 3…2…1… there you go.) But seriously, Johnny Football’s idea of a ‘check-down’ appears to be heaving it up to Benjamin and letting Benjamin chase it down like a golden retriever. It’s working, and Johnny has the job for now… so while that’s the case roll with Benjamin.

Also, Johnny’s throwin’ Benjamins. That’s the joke y’all. Cash.

Dexter McCluster – Fool's Gold

Last week, Bishop Sankey led the Titans in rushing. I hope you sold him then. This week, McCluster led the Titans in rushing. If you are able to sell McCluster… why the heck did you have lackluster-McCluster on your team in the first place?! Shame on you.

Michael Crabtree – Real Deal

There’s the athleticism we’ve coveted in Crabtree for years. He posted a 9/111/1Td stat line on 16 targets. While Car probably won’t get the opportunity to target Crabtree that much going forward, Crabtree and Cooper opened up the field against a good Raven’s defense that held the Broncos in check Week 1. Crabtree will be good for high WR3/FLEX consideration going forward.

Eric Ebron – Fool's Gold

5/43/1td, operating as a safety blanket for the sore arm of Matthew Stafford. He’s a boom/bust player, and is behind Megatron, Golden Tate, and potentially Abdullah for targets. He’s an unreliable desperation FLEX in deeper leagues, at best. Stop trying to make Ebron happen. It’s not going to happen (yet).

Colin Kaepernick - Fool's Gold

What we learned this week: When the 49ers are way down and have no hope of winning, Kaep will have inflated stats. He was 33 of 46 on pass attempts for 335 yards and tossed two TDs. He also ran nine times for 51 yards (but no bicep kisses). Unfortunately, almost all of this came in garbage time. He’s a desperation play in bye weeks, or a “what the heck” play in 2QB leagues.

Larry Fitzgerald - Real Deal

Larry Fitzgerald, as we knew him before 2010, showed up on Sunday. He gave the Bears secondary “Fitz” (get it? So punny) by putting up a 8/112/3td stat line. He’s on pace for 112 receptions and 1,592 yards (and 24 touchdowns, but that’s ludicrous). While he won’t be facing the Bears secondary every week, he and John Brown complement each other very well and we can expect a floor of high WR2 every week for each. Larry will have a blaze of glory this year before his career goes softly into that good night.

Week 3 Rankings

Weekly Rankings, compiled by Luke B. (@darcdawg) are live! You can access them by clicking here or by using the navigation menu above!

TOFFG Interviews.... Jerry Jones!

This week, TOFFG was fortunate enough to score an interview with Jerry Jones, owner of the Dallas Cowboys, aka “America’s Team.” 

Ok, so we weren’t able to actually get the interview. But if we had, this is how it would have gone. Enjoy.

-Noah D. 

TOFFG: “Hello, Mr. Jones. Thank you for taking time out of your busy schedule to speak with us.”

Jerry Jones: “Well, when my secretary showed me your interview with Bill Belichick from last year, I almost had to. The Patriots may be the current Super Bowl champions, but the Cowboys are America’s team. I’m not doing this interview for you, I’m doing it for America.”

TOFFG: “Mr. Jones, let's cut to the chase. Your star wide receiver is out for most of the season. Your star quarterback is out for most of the season. Your running back situation is a mess. What can Cowboys fans really hang their hats on?"

JJ: "We got Dan Bailey baby. Have you ever seen 75 yard field goals? Because you're about to. Everything's big in Texas, including that guy's leg. Yeeeeehaw!"

TOFFG: “Mr. Jones, can Brandon Weeden step up and take control of this team?”

JJ: "No. Brandon Weeden sucks. The f***in’ Browns cut Brandon Weeden.

TOFFG: "Well, Mr. Jones - what are you going to do then?"

JJ: "Oh, we're trading for RG3. Kid's got a big arm, and our offensive line can actually protect him. Besides, can you imagine the look on every last Redskin fan’s face when I have their ‘franchise savior’ demolish them? That Gruden guy is such an ass, he’s really got it comin’.”

TOFFG: “That’s frightening, Mr. Jones. But on the same topic… Texas Governor Greg Abbott expressed on Twitter that he would like Dallas to sign Tim Tebow. What are your thoughts?"

JJ: "That would be a media circus. Imagine, Tebow coming in to start for the Dallas Cowboys after being cut by NFC East rival Philadelphia Eagles, after a game where those same Eagles broke Romo's collarbone? Absolute insanity. Abbott's got a pair of big ones for suggesting that."

TOFFG: "But Mr. Jones, what do you think of the idea?"

JJ: "Oh it's a great idea. I'll bring in RG3 and sign Tebow for wildcat plays. Excuse me, I have to go make some phone calls."