Saturday, September 26, 2015

Building a DFS Roster (Plus Sample Rosters for Week 3)

Article Authored by Luke B.

Playing DFS can be a fickle thing. In the first week I went 4 for 4 in games played and cashed. So in week 2 I took the same approach and ended up 0 for 9. So in week 3, I went back to basics. I looked for stacks that would greatly benefit me. I also tried to create builds that would maximize their returns based on their cost, as well as attempting to fade on players that had too high of an owner percentage. So starting this week, I will be including an owner percentage in an effort to help players better understand what wins and what does not in DFS. With that in mind, here is my lineup for cash games:

Pos
Player
Cost
Points Needed to Offset Cost
Own %
QB
Tom Brady
$7,700
23.10
4%
RB
Marshawn Lynch
$7,400
22.20
15%
RB
James Starks
$3,000
9.00
34%
WR
Julian Edelman
$7,000
21.00
20%
WR
Larry Fitzgerald
$5,800
17.40
27%
WR
Allen Robinson
$5,200
15.60
17%
TE
Tyler Eifert
$4,800
14.40
13%
FL
Donte Moncrief
$4,800
14.40
11%
DF
Seahawks
$3,400
10.20
19%
TOT
9 Players
$49,100
147.30


Expected Points= 166.62
      

Stacking: In this lineup I am doing both of the most common stacks with Brady/Edelman (QB/WR) and Lynch/Seahawks (RB/DF) Both of these add value to the overall potential of the lineup due to their connections to one another.

Cause and Effect: Another part of the game is how situations create opportunity. This is the case  with Allen Robinson. His game this week is against New England and it is expected that New England will run up the score, leading to Jacksonville having to throw the ball a lot to try to keep up. This is where Robinson comes in and how Brady effects Robinson.

As for the rest of the roster, Fitzgerald is in a divisional game, Moncrief appears to be in his breakout year (so getting him while he is still relatively cheap) and Tyler Eifert is the favorite target of an offense that is going against a mediocre Baltimore pass defense.


Now on to the next part, here is my General Prize Pool lineup for the week:


Pos
Player
Cost
Points Needed to Offset Cost (x5)
Own %
QB
Tom Brady
$7,700
38.50
4%
RB
Dion Lewis
$4,200
21.00
17%
RB
James Starks
$3,000
15.00
26%
WR
Antonio Brown
$8,900
44.50
28%
WR
Larry Fitzgerald
$5,800
29.00
22%
WR
Allen Robinson
$5,200
26.00
14%
TE
Rob Gronkowski
$7,400
37.00
11%
FL
Donte Moncrief
$4,800
24.00
10%
DF
Denver Broncos
$3,000
15.00
8%
TOT
9 Players
$50,000
150.00


  
Stacking: In this lineup, I have stacked Brady with Gronk, and have also added Dion Lewis as he is a great pass catcher out of the backfield.

As for the rest of the roster, I added James Starks due to his cost, although his 26% ownership does concern me. Antonio Brown has a 28% ownership but I expect him to put up so many points that having him is almost a need to cash in a GPP. As explained in the cash lineup, Fitzgerald is in a divisional matchup and Moncrief is still relatively cheap for his perceived potential. Allen Robinson is also in this lineup and I feel that his connection with Brady can benefit me here as well. Finally, the Denver defense is going to go up against a struggling Detroit team. I expect Denver to be able to score on defense or special teams at some point in the game.

Let me know what you guys think and good luck this weekend in all of your DFS ventures. 

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