Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Week 3 Waiver Picking.

Welcome to the bye-week panic.

There are two ways to approach bye weeks.

On one hand, you can scramble to make sure you have every spot filled. This means players you've stashed (see: Josh Gordon) to pick up lesser players just for a few points. This is a viable option - you will get points now and get wins now, which could carry you to your fantasy playoff.

On the other hand, you can hold on to your stashed studs and play bye-week players. This leads to fewer points, but perhaps (due to matchup or an inept opponent) your team will prevail. It's a bigger risk, but can pay off if you can make the playoff with roster depth.

Personally, I play it by team. If I have insane value on my bench, I might tank a bye-filled week in order to succeed later. If I have a mediocre bench, I'm dropping players to fill in the holes.

That said, don't drop Peyton Manning/Marshawn Lynch/Giovani Bernard/any other stud on bye this week just because you're 0-3 in your league. There's bye-week filling, and then there's idiocy.

Last week, I got some calls very, very wrong on the waiver column. (Looking at you, Kirk Cousins. Jekyll/Hyde Cousins. Captain Kirk. Ugh.) But I got a few right, so I guess it's time to post another one. Here we go!


QUARTERBACKS

8-10 Team Leagues: Ben Roethlisberger

I normally wouldn’t recommend Big Ben except for deeper leagues, but he has a good matchup against a struggling Tampa Bay team. He’s got good weapons in Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton, and Heath Miller (I told you, I love Heath Miller. Don’t judge me.) and Tampa Bay is actually relatively ok against the run. Le’Veon Bell will find holes to run through, but I expect Big Ben to have all day to throw to his receivers. I’d start him with confidence.

12-14 Team Leagues: Kirk Cousins

Time for me to eat some crow. Cousins looked great last week… and I had him on my “Avoid” list.

Deeper than 14-team leagues: Teddy Bridgewater

Rookie QB alert! I don’t expect Bridgewater to step in and stun the fantasy football world, but he’s a starting QB who throws to Cordarrelle Patterson (who can be an elite weapon) and Greg Jennings (who… well he’s not terrible).

Avoid! – Blake Bortles

Looked ok in his first NFL action… but the starting QB for the Jags is going to have an uphill battle already. Starting a rookie mid-season at the position? It’s like pitting a baby harp seal against a pack of tiger sharks. In other news… look to the Jag’s schedule for your streaming defenses every week.

Streamer Pick of the Week – Eli Manning

Don’t pull out the torches and pitchforks – this isn’t crazy. The Redskin’s secondary is banged up… and stunk to begin with. You can actually pick up and start Eli this week, after he showed signs of life last week.

WIDE RECEIVERS

8-10 Team Leagues: Kelvin Benjamin

Why Benjamin is not owned in more leagues is beyond me. He’s a huge, physical, starting wide receiver who has Cam Newton throwing to him. The Panther’s running back situation is a mess, opening huge opportunities for Benjamin to lead the offense. And he has done just that. He’s a pick-up/start opportunity if available in your league.

12-14 Team Leagues: Reuben Randle

Randle actually led the Giants in targets last week, but didn’t do much with those targets. Against a Redskins secondary that is now without DeAngelo Hall for the rest of the season, he should do well. With Victor Cruz starting to produce, Randle should open up and become a deeper-league fantasy asset with the sheer volume of looks he gets.

Deeper than 14-team leagues: Jordan Mathews

Mathews is emerging as the leading candidate to unseat Riley Cooper as Nick Foles’ second-favorite receiver, and he proved it this past week.

Avoid! – Stevie Johnson

Looked decent this past week operating out of the slot. However, the 49ers are a running offense. The only reason Johnson received these looks was because Vernon Davis was inactive for the game. You’ve seen his best game all season.

Streamer Pick of the Week – Malcom Floyd

Against the Jacksonville Jaguars, I’d start him. He’s an ok receiver, and I think he finds the endzone this weekend.

RUNNING BACKS

All Leagues: Donald Brown

Ryan Mathews: Out. Danny Woodhead: Out. Donald Brown: Full go. He’s gonna get the touches, and when Mathews comes back he’ll take the Woodhead role (if Mathews can stay healthy… a big if). Grab Donald Brown and run with him.

8-10 team Leagues: Ahmad Bradshaw

I detailed why I like Ahmad Bradshaw last week. Again, he looked good and produced despite being in a true timeshare split with Trent Richardson. Ahmad Bradshaw produces more with his touches and can be counted on to grab a score here and there.

12-14 team Leagues: Lorenzo Taliaferro

Taliaferro looked great this weekend. While the Raven’s backfield situation is far from resolved, he looks the best. Forsett and Pierce will soon be backups.

Deeper Than 14-team leagues: Roy Helu Jr.

Helu had 56 yards from scrimmage on Sunday, with a touchdown. That’s one way to put his stat line. The other is: Helu had one catch for 55 yards and one goal-line carry for a touchdown. He’s more at risk to show up or disappear every week, but I think that he shows up more than not.

AVOID! – Joe McKnight

A few weeks ago, he wasn’t even a lock to make the team. In week 3, he blew up. However, the real news here is that the Chiefs finally figured out how their offense works. Combine Knile Davis’ carrying ability with McKnight’s receptions and you have Jamaal Charles… who is going to be back soon. We’ve seen McKnight’s best game this season (and next… and next… etc.).

Streamer Pick of the Week – Donald Brown

See above. Volume of touches+Jaguars defense = fantasy points. Echoing Andy Behrens over at Yahoo! Fantasy… if Brown gets as many touches as he did this past weekend, he should rack up about 650 yards against the Jags. (He won’t get that… but you get the idea.)

TIGHT ENDS

8-10 team Leagues: Delanie Walker

Walker keeps producing, week in and week out, highlighted in Week 2 by a 10-catch, 142 yard, 1 TD effort in Week 2. He should be added in all leagues, and in PPR leagues he has additional value. There’s not much else to say… except I like his schedule during the bye-week stretch (Jacksonville and Washington? Yes please).

12-14 team leagues: Niles Paul

Niles Paul is actually the 7th ranked tight end in fantasy this season. He’s never caught fewer than 4 balls and his low-water yardage mark is 68. He may actually be a grab/start immediately candidate.

Deeper than 14-team leagues: Garrett Graham

Graham is easing into his role as a favorite receiver for Ryan Fitzpatrick. After missing the first game, his targets, catches, and yardage have slowly increased over the last three weeks.

AVOID! – Detroit Tight Ends

Ebron is an elite weapon that doesn’t have the targets or usage to consistently make it happen for fantasy. Pettigrew is an annoyance. And Fauria is useless. Don’t touch them.

Streamer Pick of the Week- Ladarius Green


I don’t think Green has long-term value this season (ask me about a dynasty league and I’ll tell you he’s in line to be great). But he’s got a good matchup this week against… yes you guessed it… the Jacksonville Jaguars. Start him. Everyone on San Diego’s fantasy roster should have a good week.

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