Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Week 2 Waiver Picking

Sunday afternoon. You’ve got one of the games on, drinking beer and grilling out with a few friends. Someone has their phone out, checking their fantasy matchup. All of a sudden, they say “Dude, check your matchup. RG3 is down.”

 RG3 is down? How can that be? He had a cakewalk matchup against the Jags. No one gets injured playing the Jags. It’s like getting a concussion while wearing a helmet in a room with padded walls – it just does not happen. You whip out your phone/iPad/laptop (what have you) and check your fantasy roster.

 “Robert Griffin III – Q.”

The dreaded mid-game “Q.”

 What happened? You check Twitter. You find the Redskins’ twitter feed. There you see it:
And there goes your fantasy day. RG3 is sidelined with an injury (and as we now know - he will not return). He was your starting quarterback in what seemed to be an incredible matchup, and now the dreaded Kirk Cousins is playing for him. Your highest-scoring fantasy position is now putting up only 3 points for the game. Your kicker likely scored more than that. And as a result, you lost this matchup.

But cheer up – it was only Week 2 and you have plenty of options at QB. The trick is – who do you pick up while RG3 is out?

That’s where we come in. This inaugural column is inspired by the events of Week 2 in the 2014 Fantasy Football Season – a weekend of football that some are dubbing the “Fantapocalypse.” Injuries abound, and everyone is scrambling for replacements. We hope to help you find the right player to place a waiver claim on so that you can bounce back next week and get back to winning your league’s championship.

 Here’s how it works. We’ve broken down who was injured by position and identified replacements that may suit in the coming weeks. This is not your average waiver column. We break down who you should be looking to get based on how deep your league is, and how available said players are. For example, if you’re in an 8-team league, you have more options than someone in a 14-team league. Also, we’ll tell you which players seem like good grabs but should be avoided. Some of these players are fantasy quicksand, and you need reliability. So without further delay, here we go.

INJURED PLAYER: Robert Griffin III (WAS) (QB)

8-10 Team Leagues: Andy Dalton (CIN) (owned in 80% ESPN leagues, 82% Yahoo leagues) 

Andy Dalton is having a great season so far this year. Despite being without #2 Wideout Marvin Jones and losing Tyler Eifert in Week 1, he threw for over 300 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions in Week 1. He then lost top wideout A.J. Green early in Week 2, but still went on to throw for 252 yards and a touchdown and no picks. Dalton’s top three weapons (A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, and Tyler Eifert) are out, but he still manages to produce in the short game (short passes to RB’s Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill) and the long game (a beautiful 73-yard touchdown to Mohamed Sanu in the third quarter, in the face of an all-out blitz). Dalton still has weapons around him despite injuries and has the talent to make plays that will keep your fantasy team afloat. I consider him a top pickup for RG3-less owners.

12-14 Team Leagues: Joe Flacco (BAL) (owned in 30% ESPN, 35% Yahoo) 

Against a tough Cincinnati Bengals defense? 345 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 pick. Against a physical Pittsburg defense in a bitter rivalry game? 166 yards, 2 touchdowns, no picks. Definitely worth a pickup, as he’ll give you consistent production week to week.

Deeper than 14-team leagues: Geno Smith (NYJ) (owned in 6% ESPN, 9% Yahoo) 

Geno Smith went to Lambeau and almost came out with a “W,” scoring through the air and with his legs. Interceptions are a concern, but he forces defenses to respect his running and passing game. Good pickup in deeper leagues.

Avoid! – Kirk Cousins (WAS) 

While he seems to be the logical pickup in the absence of RG3, and he did look impressive Sunday after Griffin left the game, remember this: the Jaguars are terrible. I repeat: THE JAGUARS ARE TERRIBLE. They managed to make Kirk Cousins look better than he actually is. Consider this: In the three games Cousins started for the 2013 season, his average completion percentage was 53.8%. The opponents he faced included such hard-nosed and steely defenses as the Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants, and Dallas Cowboys. His completion percentage against the Giants was a mere 38.8%. Cousins is a backup for a reason, and should not be rostered in any leagues.

INJURED PLAYER: DeSean Jackson (WAS), Eric Decker (NYJ), A.J. Green (CIN) (WRs)

8-10 Team Leagues: Markus Wheaton (PIT) (Owned in 29% ESPN, 67% Yahoo) 

Honestly, I don’t understand why Markus Wheaton isn’t owned in more leagues. Taking the place of Emmanuel Sanders (who is absolutely killin’ it in Denver) he has become Big Ben’s second favorite target. Obviously this will change slightly when Lance Moore returns from injury, but Wheaton has developed excellent chemistry with Roethlisberger. The Steelers are trying to get him the ball in any way possible, resulting in 11 catches for 135 and 2 carries for 22 yards over the first two games. This comes against a tough Browns defense and a hard-hitting rivalry game against the Ravens. Wheaton has carved out a place in Pittsburgh and is worth a weekly Flex consideration.

12-14 Team Leagues: Andrew Hawkins (CLE) (Owned in 16% ESPN, 32% Yahoo) 

With top wideout Josh Gordon, tight end Jordan Cameron, and running back Ben Tate all out, the Browns have to move the ball somehow. Enter Andrew Hawkins. Over the first two weeks of the season, he has caught 14 passes on 22 targets for 157 yards. Until the aforementioned playmakers return (and potential after) you can pickup and start Hawkins with confidence.

Deeper than 14-team leagues: Brian Quick (STL) (Owned in 3.7% ESPN, 16% Yahoo)

Even in the pile of mud called the Rams offense, Brian Quick has managed to shine through. He has pulled down 14 catches for 173 yards across the first two games of the season. The impending return of Shaun Hill only improves his value. (Bonus – he faces the Dallas D[ump]ST[erfire] next week.)

Avoid! - Hakeem Nicks (NYG)

Yes, Nicks scored a touchdown in Week 1 and brought in 5 catches for 39 yards, giving him a respectable fantasy production then. However, he failed to bring even ANY touchdowns last year as a Giant, and the TD pass he grabbed in Week 1 was a lucky deflection off of the defender covering him. If targets are any indication, he’s in line behind T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener, Reggie Wayne, and Ahmad Bradshaw for catches. Yes, Ahmad Bradshaw. In Week 2? Nicks caught one ball... for negative yardage. Until Nicks proves that he is worthy of more looks than the beleaguered running backs in Indianapolis, he should not seriously considered for your fantasy roster.

INJURED PLAYER: Knowshon Moreno (MIA), Ryan Mathews (SD), Jamaal Charles (KC) (RBs)

All Leagues: Bobby Rainey (TB) (owned in 4.7% ESPN, 21% Yahoo)

Bobby Rainey needs to be owned in every league, no matter what size. Starting in place of an injured Doug Martin, Rainey exploded in Week 2 to the tune of 22 carries for 144 yards on the ground and 30 yards through the air on 3 catches (3 targets). This comes after he scored a touchdown in Week 1 after Doug Martin exited. Whether or not Martin is active for Week 3 (and he may very well not be active) Bobby Rainey is a must-add. If Martin is out, Rainey is a must-start in most leagues. Consider: Rainey’s monster Week 2 came against the same St. Louis Rams who held Adrian Peterson to 75 yards and no scores in Week 1.

8-10 team Leagues: Jonathan Dwyer (ARI) (owned in 27% ESPN, 9% Yahoo)

If Rainey is for some reason unavailable in your league, grab Jonathan Dwyer. Operating in occasional relief of an injured Andre Ellington in Week 2, he racked up 31 yards on 9 carries and found the endzone once. If Ellington were to go down for some reason, Dwyer shoots up in value. Even playing with Ellington, he deserves to be added and considered as a Flex.

*UPDATE* - Jonathan Dwyer has been arrested on domestic violence charges and deactivated from the Cardinals pending further investigation into the matter. Great news for Andre Ellington owners. Instead of Jonathan Dwyer, you can grab Stepfan Taylor, who will be splitting carries with the injured Ellington.

12-14 team Leagues: Ahmad Bradshaw (IND) (owned in 22% ESPN, 40% Yahoo)

Bradshaw looked great on Monday night, touching the ball 18 times (5 catches for 26 yards, 13 carries for 70 yards) and finding the endzone twice. Don’t be fooled though – the Eagles managed to make even Trent Richardson look good. However, he is definitely the back to own in Indianapolis this season. He’s a low end RB2, high-end flex consideration going forward in 12-14 team leagues.

Deeper Than 14-team leagues: Jacquizz Rodgers (ATL), D (owned in 3.3% ESPN, 11% Yahoo)

Usable running backs are hard to find, and you can do worse than Quiz. He saw 5 carries out of the Falcon’s 16 rushes in Week 2, and found the endzone in Week 1. Although Steven Jackson is currently the nominal lead back, all of the Falcon’s backfield options can see work going forward. In these deeper leagues Devonta Freeman is probably owned, so grab Rodgers.

Avoid! – LeGarrette Blount (PIT)

Why the heck is Blount owned in 86% of ESPN leagues (and 25% of Yahoo leagues)?! He’s seen the ball 7 times across 2 games as a backup to Le’Veon Bell. Consider the following: John Kuhn (GB), Darrel Young (WSH), Anthony Dixon (BUF), Derrick Coleman (SEA). What do these four backs have in common? They all have scored more fantasy points than LeGarrette Blount. What else do they have in common? They are currently owned in less than 0.1% of Fantasy Leagues. TL;DR: Blount sucks. Don’t waste a roster spot.

INJURED PLAYER: Vernon Davis (SF) (TE)

8-10 team Leagues: Antonio Gates (SD) (Owned in 46.5% ESPN, 74% Yahoo) 

Antonio Gates looked 10 years younger in Week 2. He pulled in 3 touchdowns, actually out-muscling the vaunted Seahawks defenders. This bears repeating: Gates pulled in 3 touchdowns against the Seahawks. While this will most certainly be his best game of the season, Gates has shown that he still has it. Ladarius Green will one day be the starter over Gates, but it will not be this season (barring injury). Gates is a must add and deserves starting consideration in all leagues.

12-14 team leagues: Heath Miller (PIT) (Owned in 14% ESPN, 63% Yahoo)

I’ll warn you now – I have a love affair with Heath Miller. He’s one of Big Ben’s favorite targets, he’s pretty good at getting open for short gains, and he’s a continual red zone threat. While he’s had a slow start to the 2014 season, I look to Miller to settle into his role (already carved out) going forward.

Deeper than 14-team leagues: Owen Daniels (BAL) (Owned in 8% ESPN, 12% Yahoo)

9 catches, 62 yards, 2 touchdowns. Across two weeks, Owen Daniels has shown that in short-yardage situations, Joe Flacco will look his way. Operating across from Dennis Pitta in two-TE sets, Daniels offers some fantasy value in an offense that likes tight ends and will be throwing more going forward.
Avoid! – Jermaine Gresham (CIN)

With starting TE Tyler Eifert out, we all expected Gresham to have a great Week 2. When A.J. Green went down, those who had added and started Gresham thought that his load would increase. However, in the absence of Eifert and Green, Gresham’s targets actually went DOWN, as the Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill ran the ball incredibly effectively and caught nearly all the short-yardage passes. Look elsewhere for a TE – they’re a dime a dozen at this tier.

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